Bernier: Kentucky Derby analysis

IRISH WAR CRY has done little wrong in his five-race career and enters the Kentucky Derby on the heels of an impressive score in the Wood Memorial on April 8 at Aqueduct. Conditioned by Derby-winning trainer Graham Motion, this son of Curlin rebounded nicely following a major flop in the Fountain of Youth on March 4 at Gulfstream. If a line is drawn through that non-effort, you’re left with a colt who is blemish-free and enters the biggest race of his life with the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (101).

Post 17 shouldn’t hurt him too much, as his tactical speed should allow him to sit just off the early pacesetters entering the first turn. He should have every opportunity to get the job done as the field turns for home.

MCCRAKEN ran a deceptively good third in the Blue Grass on April 8 at Keeneland; it was his first start since winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February, and he was against the track profile at Keeneland. Since the Blue Grass, all reports out of Louisville suggest that McCraken is set to produce a career-best effort for trainer Ian Wilkes. A perfect 3 for 3 over the Churchill Downs main track, McCraken will need a bit of pace to help accentuate his late kick beneath Brian Hernandez Jr.

Reigning 2-year-old male champion CLASSIC EMPIRE quieted some of the skeptics with a solid victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby three weeks ago. The biggest issue with this son of Pioneerof the Nile has nothing to do with talent – he has that in spades. The main concern is whether he’ll behave himself on racing’s biggest stage. His ability to sit off the pace could be a major advantage for the Mark Casse trainee since the Derby has historically featured a swift early tempo. If he acts like a professional, he certainly has a chance to hit the wire first.

LOOKIN AT LEE has the classic look of a clunk-up special at a giant price. His effort in the Arkansas Derby was an improved one from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, and he’ll be doing his best running late. The inside draw shouldn’t bother him at all since he’ll be taken to the rear immediately. He’s one who must be considered for minor awards when constructing exotic wagers.