Bernier: Keeneland pick five play for Friday, Oct. 30

Breeders’ Cup weekend kicks off with a $500,000-guaranteed pick five on the first five races of Friday’s card at Keeneland. Although they may not be classified as Breeders’ Cup races, they do feature quality fields and offer solid wagering opportunities. Think of them as the appetizers for the main course this weekend.

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RACE 1
CANDIP (7) enters this optional claimer in razor-sharp form, and he possesses wonderful tactical speed – an asset that may ultimately be the difference in Friday’s opener. His latest effort in a stakes at Remington was quite strong. He finished second to Ivan Fallunovalot, and there are no Ivan Fallunovalot’s waiting for him in this spot. He figures to be a major contender here. It may be said that PABLO DEL MONTE (5) has been a bit of a disappointment throughout his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a successful racehorse. Trainer Wesley Ward will put blinkers back on this son of Giant’s Causeway for the first time since his third start back in late 2013, and maybe that will sharpen him up some. He turns back from a mile to six furlongs. A positive Formulator Fact for Pablo Del Monte/Wesley Ward: Past Five Years, Dirt, Route-to-Sprint, 2nd off the layoff – 6 for 12 (9 in-the-money), $3.43 ROI.
HORSES: PABLO DEL MONTE (5), CANDIP (7)

RACE 2
SMOOTH CARAMEL (9) was a maiden just two starts ago, but in a matter of weeks she’s rattled off back-to-back victories. While she’ll need to run the race of her life to win, she has the outside post and ability to adapt to whatever sort of pace scenario develops, both of which could prove invaluable. STREET BLUSH (1) hasn’t been seen in quite some time – since August of 2014, when she broke her maiden in her career debut for trainer John Kimmel. Now she’ll finally make her second start, only this time for Ralph Nicks. Over the past two years, Nicks’s runners are 2 for 5 (4 ITM), with a $2.40 ROI coming off layoffs of 365 days or greater. She should figure today with Joel Rosario aboard. TITANIUM (5) ran a creditable race here two weeks ago off of a brief layoff, and if she moves forward off that effort she’ll be dangerous.
HORSES: STREET BLUSH (1), TITANIUM (5), SMOOTH CARAMEL (9)

RACE 3
If ALLIED AIR RAID (7) can handle the turn-back in distance today for Brad Cox he looms as one of the logical contenders. He possesses tactical speed, but it must be noted that he’s yet to win away from Oaklawn Park. Should Allied Air Raid not take to the main track at Keeneland, or should he resent the turn-back in distance, a horse who has some early zip in a race that seems to lack a ton of early foot could be the answer. STORM ADVISORY (5) was positioned a few lengths off the pace in his latest try, but he’s shown he can run fast enough to be up on the lead if necessary. It took him quite a long time to change leads in his last race, a fourth-place finish here, but it should also be noted that the horse that finished behind him that day has returned to win with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure.
HORSES: STORM ADVISORY (5), ALLIED AIR RAID (7)

RACE 4
TWEET KITTEN (4) finally broke his maiden for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in his eighth and most-recent start, and hopefully the “light bulb on” angle applies in this spot. He has a solid late turn of foot and tactical speed. If he can work out a decent trip, he could very well win right back. PAID ADMISSION (12) is a fascinating horse. The draw was clearly unkind to this son of Candy Ride, but trainer Chris Richard is very sharp when placing his runners. It’s very intriguing that he chooses a graded stakes race for Paid Admission to make his turf debut – and it’s also worth noting that the connections attempted to get him on the turf in his first two starts. He could be one that blows up the toteboard at a huge number.
HORSES: TWEET KITTEN (4), PAID ADMISSION (12)

RACE 5
If you’re still alive – congrats! Unfortunately things don’t get any easier, as this year’s edition of the Fayette is a thumper. If COMMISSIONER (9) runs like he did in the Skip Away or Pimlico Special earlier this year he should be formidable. ENCRYPTION (10) ran a giant race off the layoff at Parx in his latest effort, and maybe this colt is putting everything together. He’s always hinted at being a good horse, but he’s yet to really prove it against quality competition. EAGLE (11) is another runner who’s always hinted at ability, and maybe his latest score here at Keeneland was a sign that things are coming together. He’s 2 for 2 in his brief career here at Keeneland, both of them being route scores.
HORSES: COMMISSIONER (9), ENCRYPTION (10), EAGLE (11)