Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, Oct. 23

Here's a pick three sequence to start the day at Santa Anita on Sunday. The payoff leg of this pick three (races 1-3) is the Anoakia for 2-year-old fillies, and there's a legitimate favorite that I'll single.

Race 1

CINDYS SECRET (1) wasn't embarrassed most recently at Del Mar in the Daisycutter when facing tougher, and she figures to be one of the pacesetters in this race going down the hill. Her recent form is solid enough, and she has demonstrated the ability to sit off a target in the past. The target that Cindys Secret is likely to sit off here is PAQUITA COQUETA (4) for Richard Mandella. She has only started once in North America thus far, and it was a nice effort going five furlongs on turf at Del Mar. A group stakes winner in her native Chile, Paquita Coqueta figures to be forwardly placed throughout beneath Flavien Prat. Should these two hook up early and set a hot pace, perhaps things could set up well for BARBARA BEATRICE (5). Barbara Beatrice was most recently a decent fifth in the Solana Beach at Del Mar going longer, and that race has emerged as a key race to an extent (three next-out winners with Beyers of 93, 84, and 81). Look for her to find her best stride late.

Race 2

HEAT ME (3) has only routed twice in her career and never on dirt, so this spot is intriguing. Overall her dirt form is tremendous (4 for 5 lifetime) and she's in the great hands of trainer Mark Glatt. Joe Talamo has the mount, and it would be hard to imagine this filly being too far off the pace considering the stretch-out in distance. WARREN'S TRICIA R (4) hasn't been seen in some time, and that is a legitimate concern. Trainer Jorge Gutierrez doesn't excel with runners coming off these sorts of layoffs, but she's worth using considering the likely price. Her past five races appear a bit unappetizing, but when you strip away the two turf races you're left with three dirt routes that resulted in a win and two runner-up finishes.

Race 3

Bob Baffert sends out AMERICAN GAL (5) in the Anoakia, and although there is other legitimate pace signed on here, she figures to be the speed of the speed. In her debut, this daughter of Concord Point flashed big speed, zipping her opening quarter-mile in 21.56 seconds, according to the incremental splits in DRF Formulator. She ultimately drew off to win by five lengths on Aug. 14 at Del Mar, and she has since been flattered by the fillies she defeated that day - the second- and third-place finishers returned to win their maidens next out with Beyer Speed Figures of 67 and 69. The 82 Beyer that American Gal earned in her debut lays over this field, and any sort of improvement makes her extremely tough.

The Play

$5 pick 3, races 1-3: 1,4,5 / 3,4 / 5 = $30