Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Sunday, Oct. 22

Sunday’s card at Santa Anita is highlighted by the $70,000 Anoakia Stakes for 2-year-old fillies, carded as the third race on a nine-race card. Based on its placement, I’ll look at the pick-five sequence beginning in race 1.

RACE 1

AWESOME HEIGHTS (8) won his maiden most recently in his first try going down the hillside turf course. The downhill races at Santa Anita are unique; some horses love the trip, and some horses hate it. If you find one who can handle it, he must be respected. From a pedigree perspective, FLY TO MARS (4) could be an interesting entrant for Peter Miller. Ministers Wild Cat’s offspring strike at a 12.8 percent rate when trying turf for the first time, and this gelding is a half-sibling to a runner who went 1 for 2 on turf.

RACE 2

ARISTOCRATIC (4) makes his first start as a gelding and could wind up as the controlling speed. If you’re willing to attempt to spin a positive narrative: It could be argued that Aristocratic simply hated running at Del Mar – as many horses have. If that’s the case, draw a line through the two most recent starts; prior to that, you’re left with solid efforts against better at Santa Anita. EDWARDS GOING LEFT (5) was way overmatched last out in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship; placed in a more realistic spot today, he could figure down the lane.

RACE 3

CHATTY (1) has her hand forced breaking from the rail in a race filled with speed. Tyler Baze doesn’t have much of a choice here – Chatty needs to be sent and to hope that she’s simply faster than the other fillies in this race. If she can shake clear as the speed of the speed, she could get brave. If a pace duel develops early on, STEPH BEING STEPH (5) could fall into an ideal trip. Steph Being Steph won her maiden at Los Al on Sept. 8, and it’s worth noting that the second- and third-place runners each returned to win their maidens in their next starts (Beyer Speed Figures of 63 and 76).

RACE 4

Distance may not be the friend of ALLABOUTMIKE (2), but he projects to be lone speed in this race at eight furlongs. If the distance doesn’t prove to be too much, he has a serious chance to wire the field. HOOTIE (3) was awesome in his debut before trying dirt in an off-the-turf stakes race as a 2-year-old. That dismal effort preceded a long layoff, and his return effort at Del Mar on Aug. 27 was far from embarrassing. Hootie projects to take a step forward in his second start off the bench; he’d be my pick in the race. KENCUMIN (7) has some tactical speed, and that could be the difference in a race like this; sit a bit off a potentially distance-challenged pacesetter and still get the jump on the deep closers.

RACE 5

HAILEY RACHELE (6) has the best early speed and some of the fastest races in this group; she’s far from a slam dunk, but she must be used in multirace wagers. Once you get past her, it’s a bit of a crapshoot; I’m going to take a few first-time starters who may simply be better than the fillies we’ve seen run: WEATHER MARKET (4), MIKENJANE (5), and BISCOTTI GAL (7).