Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, Jan. 6

With some rain having fallen yesterday and a chance (albeit slight) of rain this afternoon, Sunday's Santa Anita card is a bit difficult to decipher. Add in the possibility that biases may or may not exist following track work and putting together plays before getting a feel for the track is rather difficult. Because of this, I’m looking at only a small play, and it comes in the featured event, the five-horse Santa Ynez for newly turned 3-year-old fillies.

There’s no question that BELLAFINA’S (2) best is the best we’ve seen to date from any of these fillies, but I’d be lying if I said with confidence that I know she’s the real deal. Bellafina’s effort in the Breeders’ Cup was terrible, and her effort three starts back at Del Mar in the Debutante resulted in victory, but visually it left something to be desired. If the daughter of Quality Road shows up with something close to what she delivered in the Chandelier two starts back, everyone else is likely running for a minor award. If she offers something closer to the Breeders’ Cup effort or the Debutante, this race is more open than it may initially appear.

MOTHER MOTHER (1) has been a filly that I’ve liked since day one, but she’s another that I’m suddenly not completely convinced is “the goods.” The turnback in distance should work to her benefit, but the recurring equipment changes (blinkers back off today) make me wonder if Baffert and Co. are still searching for her ideal situation. She can win, but breaking from the inside on the turnback with speed drawn to her outside leaves me a bit skeptical.

If it’s not one of the two favorites, perhaps it’s SOLD IT (3). Sold It may not be as naturally talented as Bellafina or Mother Mother, but what she does have is legitimate early speed. I’m hopeful Mario Gutierrez is aggressive leaving the gate and sends Sold It to the front, ideally clearing the fillies to his inside. If he’s able to establish position on the lead with this daughter of The Factor, I think she’ll be in position to hit the board, at the very least. She’ll be a large part of my trifecta play for this race.

THE PLAYS
TRIFECTA: 3 / 1,2 / 1,2,4,5
TRIFECTA: 1,2 / 3 / 1,2,4,5