Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday, Oct. 7

Saturday’s card at Santa Anita is highlighted by the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, a key prep for next month’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Sprint Championship kicks off a pick-three sequence that I’m interested in looking at, and it concludes with the Swingtime, a restricted stakes for fillies and mares on turf.

RACE 6 – SANTA ANITA SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP

RANSOM THE MOON (1) was the beneficiary of Drefong’s adventure in the Bing Crosby at Del Mar over the summer, scooting up the rail as the riderless Drefong floated wide and badly impeded ROY H (6). They’re both major players in this event, but of the two, I’m giving a slight edge to Roy H, who could be the controlling speed here, and at worst, he’ll be pressing the pace throughout. Six furlongs could be sharp for AMERICAN ANTHEM (4), but he fits here from a talent standpoint. I’m against GIANT EXPECTATIONS simply because I think the six-furlong distance is far too short for him. This could be the perfect prep for him leading into a race like the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile though.

:: Get bonus PPs for Saturday’s card at Keeneland

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RACE 7

RUN JEANNE RUN (3) and LIPSTER (4) exit the same race Sept. 14 at Los Alamitos, and the typical progression from start No. 1 to start No. 2 should make these two the horses to beat. Both colts were well beaten in their debut, but the first- and second-place runners have returned to run respectable races (64 and 70 Beyer Speed Figures), so one would expect these two to take a similar step forward here. I’m against BUTTE CITY (9) if for no other reason than that Carla Gaines is 1 for 38 over the past five years with runners going from maiden special weight races to maiden claimers.

RACE 8 – SWINGTIME

The overall form of the John C. Mabee Stakes is suspect at best, but if any of the fillies or mares exiting that event is going to take a step forward today, it’s going to be INSTA ERMA (6). Insta Erma was making her first start for trainer Richard Baltas in the Mabee, and Baltas has had success with runners making their second start off the bench. There also appears to be quite a bit of pace signed on for the Swingtime, so she should have every opportunity to get the job done if good enough.

THE PLAY

$1 P3: 1,4,6 / 3,4 / 6 = $6