Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita for Saturday, Nov. 5

The late pick four on Breeders' Cup Saturday features a guaranteed pool of $3 million, and I'm looking to take a small swing against a couple of short-priced favorites.

Race 9 - Turf

Most people will be focusing in on three horses in particular, and I'm no different. I'm of the opinion that FLINTSHIRE (4) despised the soft turf at Belmont in his most recent start, and that's why he ran as poorly as he did. He should relish the firm turf course here at Santa Anita and must be viewed as a major contender. FOUND (10) won last year’s Breeders' Cup Turf, and she enters this year's event on the heels of an Arc de Triomphe score two starts back. I'm using her more defensively than anything, as I feel she's more of a galloping-sort rather than a strong turn-of-foot filly - and I don't think that style will lend itself to this turf course. I'm most interested in HIGHLAND REEL (12), as I think he sits just off of Ashleyluvssugar and gets first run on his main competitors.

Race 10 – Filly and Mare Sprint

The FIlly and Mare Sprint is wide open, and because of that I would like to take a stand against likely favorite Carina Mia. HAVEYOUGONEAWAY (2) was tremendous at Saratoga this summer, and a replica of either of her past two starts makes her a major player here. TARA'S TANGO (3) is my preference in this event, as Jerry Hollendorfer has had phenomenal success over the past five years with fillies turning back from a route to a sprint in graded stakes (5 for 9, $6.66 return on investment). I would prefer PAULASSILVERLINING (9) fresh off the layoff, however she still has a big chance considering her forward running style. FINEST CITY (12) is a bit of a wild card in this spot, as her most recent start was in a turf route. She has run well in dirt sprints in the past, and she should be a square price in this spot.

Race 11 - Mile

Tepin is certainly the horse to beat, however I don't think she has come back from her Ascot trip as the same mare. She absolutely has a chance in here but I'm choosing to take a shot against her at a short price. SPECTRE (3) is an intriguing longshot; she has been placed against older males over the past few starts, and she hasn't been embarrassed. She's the kind of filly that could be coming up on a career-best effort and she figures to be a giant price. If the pace gets hot up front, the best closer in the race is IRONICUS (9). He has run some giant races in the past, and there's no reason to think he won't come with his immense late kick. LIMATO (10) is arguably the most talented runner in the field. There are some minor concerns about the additional distance he'll need to navigate, but a mile in the United States really shouldn't be an issue for him. I may be on an island, but I don't believe the pace in this race will be nearly as fast as most people do - and I think the speed-of-the-speed has a big chance to wire this field. MIDNIGHT STORM (13) has races on his page that are certainly fast enough to beat this field, and the fact that he has the ability to throw a half-mile in 46 seconds shouldn't go unacknowledged.

Race 12 - Classic

I don't have anything interesting as far as win contenders are concerned in the Breeders' Cup Classic. CALIFORNIA CHROME (4) is the most likely winner of this race, however I prefer ARROGATE (10) for a couple of reasons. Arrogate's Travers was an all-time performance, and he can regress five to seven points on the Beyer scale and still be a major threat to Chrome. If he somehow replicates his Travers, Arrogate can win the Classic by open lengths. At the end of the day, I want to be alive to both of the main contenders in what appears to me to be essentially a match race.