Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday, March 30, 2019

It’s nice to be racing at Santa Anita again, especially on a Saturday filled with stakes action. I’m going to focus on a midcard pick-three sequence comprised of three graded stakes races: the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile, Grade 2 San Carlos, and Grade 3 Santa Ana.

RACE 5 – KILROE MILE

There doesn’t appear to be any real speed signed on, but I’m not sure that will matter too much for the two best horses in the race, CATAPULT (4) and NEXT SHARES (5). Of the two, I prefer Catapult, simply because I think he’s in career form and a replica of either of his two most recent races – the Pegasus World Cup Turf and the Breeders’ Cup Mile – likely gets the job done here. I’ll single Catapult, but I can understand anyone who wants to back up with Next Shares; this sequence could be a bit chalky, so I’m more inclined to press along the way.

RACE 6 – SAN CARLOS

Most people will gravitate toward KANTHAKA (1), and understandably so; his most recent run was strong, finishing a few lengths behind two-time defending Eclipse Award champion sprinter Roy H. This seven-furlong distance is exactly what he wants, but his lack of early speed at Santa Anita is a great concern for me. I’ll fade Kanthaka here and use two horses: AX MAN (2) and ST. JOE BAY (4). There’s a possibility that these two hook up early and duel each other into submission, but I’m hopeful Ax Man is sent to the lead and St. Joe Bay takes up a pressing position throughout; he displayed the ability to press and pass two starts back at Los Al, and while this distance may not be his best, I think he’s capable at it. I do question if Ax Man is of this quality, but it’s hard to argue against a Bob Baffert horse with early speed in a graded stakes race at Santa Anita.

RACE 7 – SANTA ANA

I found this race to be the most confounding of the sequence, but when push came to shove, I landed on the chalks. Of the two morning-line favorites, I prefer STREAK OF LUCK (2), even though she’s never gone this far. I loved her most recent try against Vasilika, in which she finished her final quarter-mile in 22.77 seconds; if she can navigate the added ground, I think she’ll be tough. ELYSEA’S WORLD (6) is no superstar, but she is honest. She may have needed the race last out before showing her true form, and if she’s able to call upon one of her East Coast races, she’ll be right there.

THE PLAY

$10 P3 – 4 / 2,4 / 2,6 = $40