Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday, March 18

The late pick four at Santa Anita on Saturday features two stakes races, including one Grade 1. The Irish O’Brien and Santa Margarita feature horses who I believe could be vulnerable favorites, and I’ll try to beat them both. If the play connects, it’s likely to pay reasonably well.

RACE 7 – IRISH O’BRIEN

ENOLA GRAY (3) will take an enormous amount of money in the Irish O’Brien, and I’m not entirely sure she has an edge on this field. There appears to be a fair amount of pace signed on here, and Enola Gray has yet to prove that she can sit and pass horses. I certainly don’t want to find out that she can’t at a very short price. LILY KAI (5) turns back for the first time since her first two starts, and she should be rolling from the rear at a giant number if the pace develops in front of her. BERT’S MELODY (6) was only beaten a length in this race two years ago, and if she has any gas left in the tank, she figures to loom turning for home. SMOOVE IT (7) will appreciate returning to the hillside turf course in her third start off the bench; she has several races on her page that are good enough to beat these, and she’ll likely get a favorable pace scenario to run at.

RACE 8

SOLAR ZONE (2) finally broke through in start No. 13 recently, and while that victory came in gate-to-wire fashion, I don’t believe he absolutely needs the lead. His effort three starts back gives me hope that he can rate off the pace and allow a couple of overmatched foes to set things up for him. If the pace is swift early, LATENT CRAZE (5) will be rolling from the back. A maiden winner Feb. 26, this Doug O’Neill trainee should take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. It’s never easy facing winners for the first time, but against a soft group like this, decent recent form can make all the difference.

RACE 9 – SANTA MARGARITA

I have zero desire to use VALE DORI (2) in the Santa Margarita. She’s had perfect trip after perfect trip in her four most recent starts, and today she figures to face much more pressure from a group of fillies and mares who are more talented than the ones she’s been facing. At a very short price, I’ll let her beat me. FINEST CITY (3) may be the most talented mare in the field, but I’m not convinced she’s going to appreciate nine furlongs on dirt. I’ll use her, but more defensively than anything. SHOW STEALER (4) has had to run against Vale Dori in each of her three most recent starts, as Vale Dori had everything go her way. Today figures to be a slightly different story, and the additional half a furlong that Show Stealer gets to work with should only benefit her.

RACE 10

BURNT COGNAC (7) returns to turf for the first time since he was a 2-year-old at Del Mar in November, and his tactical speed makes him a major threat for trainer Richard Mandella. If he takes a step forward from ages 2 to 3 as natural progression would suggest, he’ll likely make his presence known. I’ll single him in the nightcap.

THE PLAY

$0.50 P4: 5,6,7 / 2,5 / 3,4 / 7 = $6