Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday, Jan. 6

Two stakes races – one on dirt for 3-year-olds and one on turf for older horses – highlight the Saturday card at Santa Anita. The Sham has a very likely winner entered, but I’m willing to take a stab against him with an intriguing alternative. The San Gabriel features a competitive field and presents a number of options if you’re looking to go against the favorites.

SHAM

MCKINZIE is very clearly the most likely winner of the Sham, and I don’t want to have too much money in against him. He was a winner via disqualification in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity last month, and based on his speed figures, he’s strictly the horse to beat. If you’re looking to take a shot against him, perhaps Bob Baffert’s other runner, MOURINHO, is an option. Mourinho has run well in sprint races so far in his career, but his pedigree would suggest additional distance shouldn’t be an issue. His older sister excelled when she was stretched out in distance, and perhaps a pace-pressing trip presents itself for Mourinho this afternoon. A small win wager on Mourinho is the play for me in the Sham.

SAN GABRIEL

ITSINTHEPOST and ISOTHERM are the two most likely winners, but I fear that the nine-furlong distance is shorter than ideal for both of them. Conversely, the turnback to nine furlongs is exactly what FLAMBOYANT has been looking for. Flamboyant has been running respectably for quite some time at distances that are disadvantageous for him. His kick at 1 1/8 miles works well, and he should be a playable price today. I’ll bet him to win and key him underneath the two favorites, Itsinthepost and Isotherm, in exactas.