Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita for Saturday, Jan. 21

Stop me if you’ve heard this before – weather will have a profound effect on the racing at Santa Anita. Heavy rain that has fallen over the past two days all but assures a wet racing surface Saturday afternoon, adding an extra variable when handicapping the card. Last week’s pick five ticket was a loser via disqualification; hopefully this week’s ticket survives any and all inquiries/objections. Here’s a look at Saturday’s pick five, culminating with the Grade 2 Santa Monica.

Race 1

JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT (3) drops in class and stretches out for Ed Moger Jr. She has won at the mile distance in the past, so the stretch-out shouldn’t be a concern. On paper, she appears to be controlling speed, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector confirms that. She has a nice opportunity to wire the field in the opener. If Josephine’s Moment finds the distance or surface too demanding, MIZ GRAYCEE (4) should be the one to take advantage. Her pressing style makes her a prime contender in a race like this, even with the step up in class.

Race 2

The three horses that have the best early foot break from the outside post positions; of them, SCATHING (4) appears to have the most zip. A 4-year-old daughter of Grazen, this filly stretches out in her second start off the bench for trainer Steve Miyadi – a move that has been very profitable in the past Formulator Fact: Past 5 years, Second after layoff, sprint to route: 6 for 10, $6.64 return on investment). She’s likely to have company on the front end, particularly from HURRICAINE CALLIE (6). This Peter Miller-trained runner ran a credible race most recently at Los Alamitos, and she happens to have a positive Formulator Fact in her corner (Past 5 years, dirt route, all claiming, blinkers switch to on: 5 for 11, $6.67 ROI).

Race 3

The single in the sequence comes in the third race, as SPINDLE (2) tries winners for the first time. Making her first start off the claim for trainer William Morey, this 4-year-old daughter of Hard Spun won her maiden recently at Los Alamitos in impressive fashion. Not only does she fit in this field from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, but she also possesses the highest last out TimeformUS rating (94). She ran well enough on a wet track two starts back at Del Mar to alleviate any concerns about the surface, and Morey has done tremendous work with these types in the past (Past 5 years, maiden winner last out, first after claim: 6 for 12, $3.15 ROI).

Race 4

Although there is a 4-5 shot on the morning line, I feel as though this could be the race where a price presents itself. Accordingly, I will go four deep in a seven-horse field. PRINCESS ASHLYN (4) is the morning-line favorite, and deservedly so. She gets a double drop in class, dropping from the $16,000 nonwinners-of-three level to the $12,500 nonwinners-of-two level here; it’s also worth noting the horse she finished second to in her most recent effort returned to earn an 80 Beyer Speed Figure in her subsequent start. She’s certainly the horse to beat, but she’s far from a slam dunk. Of the four I’ll use, I prefer ROCKANTHAROS (5). Rockantharos is one of four exiting a common race, and she was hooked in a major pace duel that day. Of the pacesetters she was easily the best, and an easier pace scenario appears to present itself here. She has a major chance to wire this field. I don’t love SHARP HOLIDAY (7), who finished ahead of Rockantharos on Dec. 31, as she had a dream trip up the rail from off the pace and still couldn’t get the job done. I will use her defensively, as the cut-back from six furlongs to 5 ½ should help her cause. REALLY A GEM (6) is intriguing to me; she fits a profile I tend to look for – horses that take a long time to win their maiden and come back to try a less-than-stellar group of winners. It’s nice to see that she earned her first win over a wet racetrack, and if things get hot up front she could take advantage from just off the pace.

Race 5 (Santa Monica)

FINEST CITY (1) makes her first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita in November, and she’s clearly the horse to beat. That being said, she will have to deal with a truly fast filly and may or may not love a wet racing surface. She’s a use, but I’m hoping to beat her off the bench. FANTASTIC STYLE (4) makes her first start for Doug O’Neill and makes her second start off the layoff. Most recently in the Kalookan Queen she was involved in a blistering pace duel and ultimately paid the price; the pace scenario here looks as though it could be 180 degrees different. Her best race is every bit as good as Finest City’s and Fantastic Style has a real shot to clear to the front here – if she does, she could be tough to catch.

The play

50-cent pick five: 3,4 / 4,6 / 2 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,4 = $16