Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita for Saturday, Feb. 11

Saturday’s card at Santa Anita features two graded stakes races, the Grade 2 Santa Maria on the main track for fillies and mares, and the Grade 2 Arcadia for older horses on the turf. The races are carded as the fourth and fifth of a nine-race program, and I’ll take a look at a pick 3 sequence comprised of races four through six.

RACE 4 – SANTA MARIA
VALE DORI (6) looms as an obvious single in this spot for Bob Baffert. After two open-length scores against a few of these common foes, she figures to be an odds-on favorite in the Santa Maria, and rightfully so. She will be forwardly placed from the moment the gates break, and, barring something unforeseen, it will be very difficult to beat her. Vale Dori will be a single for most in multi-race wagers.

RACE 5 – ARCADIA
The Arcadia doesn’t appear quite as clear as the Santa Maria; however, there are only five horses scheduled to compete in this Grade 2 event. CONQUEST ENFORCER (5) makes his second start in Southern California for Phil D’Amato, and his most recent score in the Mathis Bros. Mile on Opening Day was visually impressive. He has shown the ability to sit off a target in the past, and it will be up to Flavien Prat to decide what the best plan is aboard this son of Into Mischief. RING WEEKEND (2) is the class of the field, and his most recent race should be thrown out completely, as it was run on a wet main track. There appears to be a reasonable amount of early foot signed on here despite the short field, so Rafael Bejarano will be allowed to sit tight, allow the pace to develop and push the button when he sees fit.

RACE 6
If WILLING TO TRAVEL (3) replicates the 82 Beyer Speed Figure he earned most recently on Dec. 29, he’s going to win. From a running-style standpoint, he’s way up against the track profile in route races on the main track; for that reason, I’ll try to beat him. OVER ACHIEVER (6) figures to be forwardly placed throughout for Jerry Hollendorfer, and the combination of class relief and additional distance should do him wonders. ROARING RULE (7) scratched Friday to run in this race on Saturday, and he’s another that projects to be relatively close to the pace from the moment the gates break. The blinkers are removed for the first time since September 2015, and perhaps that will allow this Brocklebank trainee to sit off Over Achiever and attack rounding the far turn.

THE PLAY:
$10 P3: 6 / 2,5 / 6 = $20
$5 P3: 6 / 2,5 / 7 = $10