Bernier: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday

Saturday’s featured event at Santa Anita is the Grade 2 La Canada for older fillies and mares, and Vale Dori towers over the field for trainer Bob Baffert. The La Canada is the fifth race on a nine-race card, making it the payoff leg of the Pick Five. Here’s a look at tomorrow’s Pick Five sequence, kicking off with race one.

RACE 1
An intriguing turf race for older fillies and mares opens things up, and it appears that Richard Baltas has a strong hand. PLACE DES VOSGES (8) has the blinkers removed for her first start for Baltas, and he’s had success with this move over the past three years (FORMULATOR FACT: Past Three Years, First After Trainer Switch, Blinkers Switched to Off: 4 for 9, $4.62 ROI). Baltas also sends out FLAMINGO LANE (7), a 7-year-old mare who was claimed out of her most recent race Oct. 27. Her early speed could prove vital, as there doesn’t appear to be much early foot signed on. If SCARLET HONEY (5) can still run, the rest of the bunch could be running for second money. Making her first start since June 2015, this 5-year-old mare was earning Timeform ratings as a 3-year-old that would make her an outside contender here; if age and Lasix move her forward from those prior efforts in Europe, she’ll be a handful. SUGARY (9) and LADY PAMELA (10) exit maiden scores most recently, and based on pedigree and prior efforts, Lady Pamela figures to be the more fancied of the two at the windows.

RACE 2
Both HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER (4) and TUSCANY BEAUTY (5) feature big early speed – the question becomes whether or not they duel one another into the ground. Of the two I prefer Tuscany Beauty, as she’s getting significant class relief dropping out of the Kalookan Queen on Dec. 30. If these two throw it down early, it could set up nicely for KRISTIE’S HEART (6), who figures to be sitting just off the pace breaking from the far outside. If things get REALLY quick early, perhaps BUZZER BEATER (3) makes the last run a winning run coming from the back of the pack. Trainer Craig Dollase doesn’t claim horses often, but when he does, they generally produce (FORMULATOR FACT: Past Five Years, Winner Last Out, First After Claim: 3-for-8, $2.87 ROI).

RACE 3
WINNING CAUSEWAY (4) owns the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure and TimeformUS rating. However, I don’t entirely trust her. She’s certainly a major contender – and arguably the horse to beat – but she’s never won against open company and figures to garner her fair share of support. I’m going to use her, but I can’t single her. In addition to Winning Causeway, I’ll use IANCOL (6) breaking from the far outside. Route races at Santa Anita have continued to favor horses that are forwardly placed (the wet weather hasn’t changed the overall track profile too dramatically), and it would seem as though the only chance Iancol has to win here is by wiring the field.

RACE 4
If you’re looking for a second potential single in this sequence, NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (5) may fit the bill. A winner in his most recent start going long, this Peter Miller trainee turns back in distance here – a move that Miller has had incredible success with recently (FORMULATOR FACT: Past Two Years, Winner Last Out, Route to Sprint: 4-for-8, $10.45 ROI). Nextdoorneighbor projects to get a great setup here and must be considered. PAT THE BEAR (7) showed solid speed in his most recent start going shorter before flattening late; he figures to move forward in his second start off the bench and has shown the ability in the past to upset fields at square odds.

RACE 5
On paper the La Canada is a one-horse race; VALE DORI (1) defeated three of her four rivals on the square most recently at Del Mar in the Grade 2 Bayakoa, and it looks as though a similar result is coming. She’s drawn the rail as the controlling speed and projects to take this field gate-to-wire at a very short price. I’ll put all may faith in the Baffert/Smith tandem and single Vale Dori.

THE PLAY
5,7,8,9,10 / 3,4,5,6 / 4,6 / 5,7 / 1 = $40 for $0.50