Bernier: How I'll play Keeneland for Sunday, April 23

I believe the middle portion of Sunday's card at Keeneland is intriguing - specifically races 5 through 7. I have strong opinions in races 5 and 6, and I'll look to hook them up with some sort of reasonable price in the third and final leg of this pick three sequence.

RACE 5

IRST (4) makes his second lifetime start for Todd Pletcher and his first since Saratoga last summer. He returns at about seven furlongs, and based on his pedigree and running style he shouldn't have a problem off the bench.

RACE 6

VICTORY TO VICTORY (1) makes her 3-year-old debut for Mark Casse, and she's strictly the horse to beat. A grade 1 winner at two, this daughter of Exchange Rate earned Beyer Speed Figures at two that would be competitive here; if she moves forward with the natural progression from 2-to-3, she'll be a handful.

RACE 7

BLIP N' TH BYE (4) should work out a beautiful trip sitting just off what appears to be an overmatched longshot, and there's a real chance she'll inherit the lead as the field turns for home. Her most recent start was on turf, and she was far from disgraced; that being said, she returns to her preferred surface here and looks to have a nice chance to score for trainer Al Stall. GAMBLE'S GHOST (6) hasn't been seen since August 2016, but she's the most intriguing runner in the field. She's never tried a dirt surface in her career, and this may be nothing more than a prep for something bigger and better later at Woodbine. From a talent standpoint, she's every bit as good as the other fillies in here and should offer some value.

THE PLAY:

P3: 4 / 1 / 4,6