Bernier: How I'll play Del Mar for Sunday, Dec. 4

Sunday is the final day of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club’s Bing Crosby season, and there is essentially a pick six carryover of more than $89,000 awaiting horseplayers. Under normal circumstances, the $89,000 carryover would apply to the jackpot portion of the pick six; because it’s closing day and everything must go, it basically becomes a traditional carryover. Here’s a look at the pick six sequence.

Race 4

PAPA MAMBO (5) and RECKLESS CHARM (3) ran against one another on Oct. 30 at Santa Anita, and while Reckless Charm finished ahead of Papa Mambo, I believe Papa Mambo ran the better race. After being hooked in a speed duel, Papa Mambo stayed on willingly to finish a solid third. Conversely, Reckless Charm sat a few lengths off the pace duel and passed tired horses to finish second. I’ll use both runners along with LATE ‘N LEFT (4), who owns the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (87).

Race 5

The fifth race is arguably the most difficult to navigate throughout this sequence, as a case can be made for much of the field. MIDNIGHT SWINGER (1) was basically wiped out on the turn going down the hill at Santa Anita on Oct. 8, however she did finish with interest. Her trainer, Mark Glatt, has also excelled with these types over the past year (Past year, turf, sprint to route, 31-60 day layoff: 3 for 13, $5.55 return on investment). PEACH COVE (4) ran a credible race at Del Mar on Nov. 13, and the blinkers coming off should be viewed as a positive sign for trainer Richard Mandella (Past 3 years, turf route, blinkers switched to off: 3 for 7, $3.42 ROI). LADY PAMELA (12) has a lovely pedigree, and she was visually very impressive when winning her maiden at Santa Anita on Oct. 27. The fact that she won her maiden at nine furlongs is a major positive in my eyes, and the argument can be made that she may be the horse to beat in this wide-open affair.

Race 6

I need to take a stand somewhere, and race 6 happens to be the spot. TUSCANY BEAUTY (4) owns the highest last-out Beyer in the field (72), gets significant class relief (the second-place finisher in her most recent start returned to defeat Enola Gray in a stakes race here at Del Mar), and has shown in the past that she doesn’t absolutely need the lead to win. There’s significant early pace in here, but I think her class will prove to be the difference maker. She’s my single.

Race 7 – Grade 1 Matriarch

The Matriarch is the featured event on closing day, and it’s a fantastic renewal. ROCA ROJO (7) was visually spectacular winning the Athenia at Belmont Park on Oct. 23. This Chad Brown filly has an electric turn of foot, and she appears to be coming into this event in career form. She’s also very lightly raced, so it’s not ridiculous to think we haven’t seen her best yet. MISS TEMPLE CITY (12) is the horse to beat, and she’s receiving significant class relief exiting the Breeders’ Cup Mile. A rock-solid filly for Graham Motion, she possesses the tactical speed that could be the difference maker here. TIME AND MOTION (11) is an awesome 3-year-old filly for Jimmy Toner, and I’ve loved her all year. From a talent standpoint, she certainly belongs with these fillies and mares, however I fear she may find this mile trip a bit shorter than she would prefer.

Race 8

JAZZY TIMES (5) is the horse to beat in a salty optional claimer on the main track. His giant early speed always makes him a player, and it’s fair to wonder if this is a stepping-stone to get him to the Grade 1 Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita on Dec. 26. If there happens to be a pace duel, I’ll hope ST. JOE BAY (1) can rate just off the pace and roll by the leaders as the field turns for home. Peter Miller has been on fire during this Del Mar meet, and he has done exceptionally well over the past six months with dirt horses turning back from a route to a sprint (4 for 11, 8 in the money, $6.25 ROI).

Race 9

The ninth race is the final race of 2016 at Del Mar, and hopefully we’re alive for a decent score. GLACIER (3) is a fascinating horse entered here for Bob Baffert. This Florida-bred was purchased for $1.2 million at the OBS April sale, and after a very poor debut on dirt in Kentucky he’s been shipped west to Baffert. Some may view it as a negative that Baffert immediately moves him to the grass, but the dam side of his pedigree screams grass. It’s also worth noting that Baffert has had success with these kinds of runners in the past (Past year, first after trainer switch: 3 for 7 (7 ITM), $2.97 ROI; Past 5 years, first after trainer switch, turf route: 2 for 3, $3.39 ROI). I’ll use one other runner in the nightcap, and that’s I’M LIVING PROOF (10). I’m Living Proof debuted for Paddy Gallagher on Oct. 22 going down the hill at Santa Anita, and it looked like nothing more than a learning experience. The most encouraging part of the entire effort was his gallop-out, as he finished full of run. Based on his pedigree he should love the additional real estate he gets to work with here, and the addition of Lasix doesn’t hurt, either.