Bernier: How I'll play Churchill Downs for Saturday, May 6

The pick four on Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs that ends with the 143^rd Kentucky Derby is one that multi-race wager players must consider. Two turf races and two dirt races make up the sequence, and it looks as though it could be a lucrative one. Weather is going to be a factor, as rain rolled through the Louisville area Thursday and Friday, and Saturday’s forecast shows a 60 percent chance of showers during the day.

Race 9 – Grade 2 American Turf

GOOD SAMARITAN (10) makes his 3-year-old debut for trainer Bill Mott, and his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf may have been one of the best efforts of the weekend – and he didn’t win. This isn’t an easy spot to be making his first start off the bench, but if he’s ready to go he looms as a major threat. MADE YOU LOOK (9) tried dirt most recently in the Fountain of Youth on March 4, but his turf form prior to that effort was exceptional. A mid-pack trip is likely awaiting this son of More Than Ready. ARKLOW (6) won his maiden at Keeneland on April 9 in impressive fashion, and he’s beautifully bred for turf. The step up in class is tough, but he has the look of a legitimate runner. My preference at a giant price is PARLOR (3). Parlor’s most recent start in the Spiral over synthetic footing can be forgiven, as he was much too close to a hot pace. He’s slow on paper, but visually his effort two starts back at Tampa Bay Downs was exceptional. If he’s anything near his 20-1 morning line odds I have to play him.

Race 10 – Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes

EL KABEIR (8) got plenty of pace to run at on March 16 at Gulfstream, however he was running against the grain of a speed-favoring track that day. He figures to get pace to run at in his second start for Bill Mott, and if the track retains moisture he moves up even more (lifetime record of 4-2-1-0 on off going). DENMAN’S CALL (12) broke through in a big way on March 11, winning the Grade 1 Triple Bend at Santa Anita. Doug O’Neill has always handled this horse as if he’s a talented runner, and it looks like he’s finally living up to expectations.

Race 11 – Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic

This year’s Turf Classic is wide open – a case can be made for nearly the entire field. WORLD APPROVAL (7) and BEACH PATROL (8) each have similar running styles, and they both figure in a race like this. Of the two, I prefer World Approval, as he exits a perfect prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. DIVISIDERO (2) is very logical and loves the turf course at Churchill Downs; he had a tough trip in his prep at Keeneland stuck behind runners for much of the stretch, and he figures to take a major step forward in his second start off the bench. My wild price in here is the old veteran KAIGUN (5). I won’t argue with anyone that suggests he has a bit of “hang” in him and doesn’t like winning races, but he made a legitimate move at Keeneland on April 9 before flattening late. He will presumably be tighter for this race, and at a giant number I must use him.

Race 12 – Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

As wild as this year’s lead up to the Kentucky Derby was, I find myself looking at the logical contenders as the only horses I really want to use. If any horse blows the doors off this field, it will be ALWAYS DREAMING (5). I don’t particularly love his post position drawn between likely speed horses, but his Florida Derby was a tremendous performance and a forward move makes him a major contender. CLASSIC EMPIRE (14) is the reigning 2-year-old champion, and admittedly I’m using him defensively; if I were to connect with a big number earlier in the sequence only to be knocked out by Classic Empire, I would feel like an idiot. MCCRAKEN (15) is the horse I picked second in the Derby, but I think he has a major shot in here. If the pace develops up front, McCraken will be coming on as the field turns for home. His 3-for-3 record over the Churchill Downs main track shouldn’t go overlooked. IRISH WAR CRY (17) is my pick in the Kentucky Derby, and if I weight this play, he will carry most of it. He could very easily work out a similar trip to the one he got when winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 8, and if he does I think he will get the job done.

The Play:

50-cent pick four – 3,6,9,10 / 8,12 / 2,5,7,8 / 5,14,15,17 = $64