Bernier: How I'll play Belmont's New York and Met Mile

The New York/Met Mile double at Belmont Park on Friday and Saturday is one that, in my estimation, won’t pay a ton of money. That being said, the opportunity to press my strongest opinion can make this a reasonable play. I’ll be using two horses in the New York and only one in the Met - here’s the play:

NEW YORK (Friday)
This may not be the wisest decision I’ve ever made, but I’m going to take a stand against both Chad Brown runners here, SEA CALISI (6) and DACITA (8). I think Sea Calisi could be a bit of a vulnerable favorite in this spot; her two best races in North America have come over yielding ground, and the margin of victory in the Sheepshead Bay most recently is exaggerated, as Suffused was stopped badly rounding the far turn. Dacita has always been sloppy with her leads, but she ran quite well in the Beaugay over a surface she likely didn’t appreciate.

I mentioned how SUFFUSED (2) was stopped badly in the Sheepshead Bay; I think with a clean trip she could have threatened Sea Calisi that day, and she should be a much better price than Sea Calisi here. With the exception of Hawksmoor, there really isn’t a lot of pace signed on early; QUIDURA (1) has the ability to sit closer to the pace than she’s shown recently, and she exits a fantastic Jenny Wiley which has already produced a handful of strong next-out performances.

METROPOLITAN HANDICAP (Saturday)
There’s a chance I’m wildly overrating SHARP AZTECA (5), but it won’t surprise me the slightest if he runs away from the rest of the runners in the Met on Saturday. His effort in the Godolphin Mile was exceptional, setting blistering fractions before being run down late by off-the-pace types, and his start prior to the Dubai trip was equally impressive. He looks to be the controlling speed in the Met Mile, and I think he and Paco Lopez put on a show.

THE PLAYS:
$20 Double - 2) Suffused / 5) Sharp Azteca
$10 Double - 1) Quidura / 5) Sharp Azteca