Bernier: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, July 16

Sunday is closing day at Belmont Park, as everyone gears up for the 2017 Saratoga meet. The featured event on closing day is the $100,000 Lynbrook for 2-year-old fillies, and there’s an interesting entry that could offer some value on the win end. She’ll be my only play.
RACE 4 – THE LYNBROOK
I STILL MISS YOU (4) and PURE SILVER (2) are the horses to beat in the closing-day feature, each entering this stakes race on the heels of impressive gate-to-wire scores. Pure Silver possesses nice early speed, but she’ll need to prove that she can handle the hike in class as well as other quality speed pushing her throughout. I Still Miss You is one of two entered for Jeremiah Englehart, and she’s the proven commodity at this point. She’s 2 for 2 thus far, and her most recent start was particularly solid. She took legitimate pace pressure throughout before turning the others away and winning by open lengths. A replica of that effort makes her tough here, and an improved effort makes her a very likely winner.
The horse I’m most intrigued by is the other Englehart entrant, MISSBIGTIMES. Missbigtimes took quite a bit of money in her career debut (against Pure Silver) before breaking awkwardly and being taken to the back of the pack. Jose Ortiz then proceeded to angle this daughter of Flatter to the far outside and commence a long, sustained bid. All things considered, it was a very educational debut that she should move forward off. From a value standpoint, anything at or above 9-2 odds are fair. Below you’ll find my value line for the race.
1) Missbigtimes – 18%, 9/2
2) Pure Silver – 32%, 2-1
3) One Last Cast – 8%, 12-1
4) I Still Miss You – 36%, 9/5
5) Northernstreetgal – 6%, 16-1