Bernier: How I'll play Belmont for Saturday, July 9

The Stars and Stripes Festival at Belmont Park on Saturday features six graded stakes, highlighted by the two Grade 1’s for 3-year-olds on grass – the Belmont Derby and the Belmont Oaks. Mother Nature looms as we inch closer to the card, with the forecast calling for a 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon (let’s hope that the percentages are in our favor and we land in the 70 percent chance of no showers region). Here are some races and specific horses I’m looking to key.

Race 6, Grade 3 Victory Ride

The Victory Ride features 3-year-old fillies sprinting on the main track, and a swift pace would seem to be certain, based on the amount of horses that like to be outright on the lead. Should the hot pace develop, recent maiden winner MALIBU STACY (7) figures to take advantage and come rolling late for George Weaver and Manny Franco. She’s proven at the 6 1/2-furlong distance and the runner-up from her maiden win returned to score next out with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. Malibu Stacy at odds of 9-2 or better is worth a win wager.

Race 8, Grade 1 Belmont Derby

A salty edition of the Belmont Derby presents itself, as 13 3-year-olds line up to run 10 furlongs over the inner turf. You could truly go any number of ways in this spot, and that’s why I want to take a shot with a horse who is guaranteed to be a solid price but also possesses some serious upside. AQUAPHOBIA (11) will be getting the stiffest test of his brief career, but based on the way he finished in his two most recent starts, there’s reason to believe he has a puncher’s chance against this field. The turn-of-foot he featured in the James Murphy at Pimlico two starts back was electric from both a visual standpoint as well as a “numbers” standpoint. Consider this – even though it was against inferior foes and contested over less-than-“good” going, Aquaphobia came home in 23.72 seconds; the second fastest final quarter-mile in the race was achieved in 24.53. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is one of the more underrated trainers in the game, and I’ll be keying this runner in all of my exotic wagers. At odds of 10-1 or greater I’ll be betting him to win, as well.

Race 10, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks

CATCH A GLIMPSE (12) will garner much of the attention in the Belmont Oaks, and rightfully so. She’s 7 for 7 on turf and figures to be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature much early foot. The biggest concern I have for her is the additional distance she’ll need to navigate; most of her success has come between eight and nine furlongs and stretching out to 10 furlongs is a completely different ballgame. I won’t be the slightest bit surprised if she wins, but from a wagering standpoint I’m going to try to beat her. TIME AND MOTION (4) has been razor-sharp as a 3-year-old for trainer Jimmy Toner and her most recent start in the Wonder Again was visually very strong. The late turn-of-foot she displayed on June 5 was what everyone looks for in a turf horse, and the additional real estate should work in her favor. Time and Motion is a legitimate threat to upset Catch a Glimpse in the Belmont Oaks, and I’ll play her to win at odds of 5-1 or greater.

Race 11 , Grade 3 Belmont Sprint Championship

PRIVATE ZONE (2) makes his 2016 debut for trainer Brian Lynch, and while he’s the most accomplished runner in the field, I’m not afraid of taking a swing against him here. This son of Macho Uno has always been one dimensional, and I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to scoot to the lead against these runners. The early pace scenario appears to be a lively one on paper, and I think it could set up beautifully for JOKING (6). Joking was the upset winner of the Grade 2 True North here on June 10, and a repeat of that effort makes him very dangerous in this spot. His late running style fits this race perfectly, and should Mother Nature make an appearance Saturday, backers of Joking shouldn’t worry – he has a career record of 4-3-1-0 over wet going. At odds of 9-2 or great, Joking is worth a win wager.