Bernier: How I'll play Belmont Park on Sunday, May 12, 2019

A soggy Mother’s Day makes it a tough day to handicap racing at Belmont Park; the three races scheduled for the grass have been taken off, and the main track is guaranteed to be an off track. I believe it’s a safe and smart idea to tread lightly when it comes to off tracks, but if you’re inclined to play on this Mother’s Day, here are some horses to consider.

RACE 1

MAIMO (1) is winless from four lifetime starts on a wet track, but he turns back in distance and appears to be controlling speed in the Belmont opener. The combination of the turnback and the second start off the layoff is too much for me to resist; at the very least, consider using in all exotic wagers.

RACE 7

SAGUARO ROW (6) rallied nicely off soft fractions in her first start off a roughly 13-month layoff at Keeneland last month, drawing clear late against a field of N1X runners. Today, she’ll try N2X company in her first start at Belmont, and while it doesn’t appear as though there’s a ton of pace entered, she proved last out that she can overcome a disadvantageous pace scenario and still prevail. The morning-line price of 4-1 seems fair.

RACE 8 – GOLD FEVER

MUCH BETTER (4) is controlling speed and is easily the most likely winner of this afternoon’s Gold Fever, but he’s unlikely to offer much value. If you’re looking to take a shot against and don’t want the logical alternative, CALL PAUL (1), perhaps SOMBEYAY (3) is one to look at. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this son of Into Mischief did some good things as a 2-year-old, and while he’s been gone for some time, we all know that Pletcher can have them ready to roll off the bench (FORMULATOR FACT: Past five years, dirt, 180-plus-day layoff, sprints, non-graded stakes: 4 for 10, 6 ITM).