Bernier: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, Sept. 23

Saturday’s card at Belmont Park features two graded stakes races, the Grade 3 Nobel Damsel and the Grade 2 Kelso. The Nobel Damsel is carded as the third race on a 10-race program, and I’ll look to close out the early pick three with a single in there.

RACE 1

Wesley Ward’s runner, IN THE MOOD (2), is one of two juveniles entered with prior experience, but she’s developed a disturbing pattern of showing speed and fading down the lane. Today, she stretches out to 6 1/2 furlongs, and I believe the additional distance only compromises her chances even more. TONI ROX (3) debuts for Carlos Martin, a trainer who’s off to a great start at the Belmont fall meet. Toni Rox’s dam was 2 for 3 as a 2-year-old, and if any of that precocity is passed down to this daughter of Broken Vow, she’ll have a chance. DREAM FEVER (5) doesn’t sport anything flashy on the work tab, but Brian Lynch has had success with these types recently. I’ll also include Linda Rice’s debut runner, CITY OF THE DEAD (6). Rice has had tremendous success over the past year with first-time starters on dirt in maiden claimers (7 for 18, $3.75 ROI), so it would hardly be a surprise to see this one graduate at first asking.

RACE 2

FAHAN MURA (2) makes her first start since being claimed by John Toscano Jr., a high-percentage trainer with first-off-the-claim runners. Her most recent start wasn’t bad at all, and while she may be a bit slow on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, she fits nicely from a TimeformUS standpoint. The horse who beat her on Aug. 9 was VASILIKA (8), and she’ll be the other horse I’ll use in this second leg. Vasilika’s two most recent starts have been the fastest races of her career, and they coincide with the addition of blinkers. Breaking toward the outside is far from ideal at this distance on the inner turf, but it’s also not a death sentence. If she can work out a trip from out there, she should have a chance.

RACE 3 – NOBEL DAMSEL

There looks to be a lively pace signed on in the Nobel Damsel, and that should work out perfectly for OFF LIMITS (5) coming from the back of the pack. It’s taken this Chad Brown trainee a little while to completely put it together, but her recent form is strong, and she should get an ideal setup in this spot. If CELESTINE (1) is still capable of firing her best shot, she’s likely to win, but that’s a major question at this point. I’ll single Off Limits in the pick three, hoping she’s finally ready to earn her first graded stakes victory.