Bernier: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018

There are two price horses on New York-bred Day at Belmont Park whom I’m intrigued with, and I’ll look to play them in different fashions. Overnight rain in the Elmont, N.Y., area has removed two races from the turf, so it’s very likely that the stakes that are staying on grass will be run on less-than-firm going – something that should help one of my horses.

RACE 3 – MOHAWK

There are several likely win contenders in the Mohawk, but most of them exit the Ashley T. Cole Stakes at Belmont on Sept. 23, and I’m not overly impressed by that race. Can they win? Certainly, but I’m not rushing to the windows to bet any of them at short prices. On the flipside, a horse who may be class compromised and perhaps isn’t fast enough is HOBOE (3), but there’s too much intrigue for me to not play him. Gone for more than a year, his most recent start was a victory over N3L foes, but it was visually impressive, and it came over yielding ground. Hoboe has never earned a Beyer Speed Figure fast enough to win a race like this, but I’m hopeful he improves in his second start off the layoff and can at the very least get a piece at a square price.

RACE 10 – EMPIRE CLASSIC

According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the pace in the Empire Classic should be swift; perhaps that compromises the horses who figure to be forwardly placed, but I’m hopeful one horse can sit just off the pace and get the jump on the closers. SEA FOAM (8) ran in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby most recently for trainer Christophe Clement, contesting hot fractions while wide throughout before fading. I believe that effort is better than it may appear on paper, and he’s paired up career-best Beyers of 84 in his past two starts, something I generally believe precedes a forward move. Three-year-olds can jump forward at this time of year, and I’m hopeful that’s the case for Sea Foam this afternoon.

THE PLAYS

R3 - $10 WPS – 3) Hoboe
R10 - $10 WIN – 8) Sea Foam