Bernier: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, May 30
I will take a small swing at Saturday’s pick five at Santa Anita – a sequence which features horses that range from $20,000 maiden claimers to Grade 1 runners.
RACE 1
I’m not going to over-think this first leg; BELIEVE TOO (1) adds blinkers after a failed attempt going longer and against tougher, and you’ve got to believe this one is primed and ready to roll for Richard Baltas. If you’re looking to poke a hole in this runner, however, look no further than this Formulator Fact: Baltas over the past five years is 1 for 8 with runners taking a 50 percent claiming tag drop. TOP DRAWER (5) ran second to Believe Too in his most recent start, but his effort that day puts him squarely in play here. If Kent Desormeaux can have this one close to the pace I think he’s got a shot. PRICE OF GLORY (2) has every right to move forward in his second start off the layoff for Sean McCarthy, and the early speed he possesses makes him very dangerous.
HORSES: 1,2,5
RACE 2
You could go any number of ways in the second race, a race for Cal-bred babies going 4 1/2 furlongs on the main track. For budget purposes I will only be using three: LOV FOOL (1), STAR OF MUNSTER (3) and BRIANA JEAN (6). Of the three runners I’m using I’m most intrigued with Briana Jean. Steve Miyadi is a quality trainer, and generally speaking his horses are well meant when he debuts them in Southern California (2 for 7 with three in the money over the past year with 2-year-olds debuting at Santa Anita, $7.25 return on investment).
HORSES: 1,3,6
RACE 3
SPELLING AGAIN (4) makes her first start for Peter Miller off the claim, and Miller’s barn has been red-hot with these sorts over the past 90 days (5 for 12, 9 in the money, $3.40 ROI). YANA (5) exits a blowout win on the dirt for trainer Bill Spawr and will now be sent over the turf at Santa Anita. While it seems like a bit of a peculiar move, I like the fact that Tyler Baze stays aboard a filly that can be forwardly placed. If any sort of speed duel on the front end develops this daughter of Bertrando could inherit the lead as they turn for home. ARTISTIC CHARM (8) stretches out for the first time in North America, and strictly based on Beyer Speed Figures she’s the filly to beat.
HORSES: 4,5,8
RACE 4
At some point we need to cut costs and take a stand, and for me that happens in this race. HALLUCINATOR (5) goes out for a very sharp trainer in Ricky Agarie, and if this gelding takes a step forward after being claimed by Agarie last out he will be dangerous. I like that this horse took money in his debut and I see no reason he can’t win his maiden in his second career start. He’s my single.
HORSES: 5
RACE 5
The Grade 1 American Oaks is the fifth race carded on Saturday, and I’m going to take the two fillies that I think are the most naturally talented – SPANISH QUEEN (2) and MRS MCDOUGAL (6). Spanish Queen has been fantastic in all three of her lifetime starts and owns the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (95). If she repeats her last effort she will be very tough. Mrs McDougal ships west for Chad Brown, and I truly think she’s the filly who has the most talent/long-term potential. The only issue with this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is that she’s not the most professional racehorse you’ve ever seen. She will continue to improve with seasoning and experience, but her goofiness could be her undoing here.
HORSES: 2,6