Bernier: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Feb. 13

Saturday’s card at Santa Anita features two graded stakes, as well as the long-awaited return of 2015 Sham Stakes winner, Calculator. I’ll look to have money involved in all three of these events in some way, shape or form.

RACE 3 – GRADE 2 ARCADIA

If OBVIOUSLY (6) can replicate his most recent effort in the San Gabriel, he’s strictly the horse to beat. He’ll get back to his ideal trip of eight furlongs, and no other horse in the race possesses the sort of early gas this 8-year-old gelding does. Obviously is trained by Phil D’Amato, and so is other horse I’m intrigued with, CAPE WOLFE (2). Cape Wolfe may not be of this caliber, but in a short field he could very well offer value. Based on value, I believe the odds should look like this:

1) OM, 28% chance of winning, 5-2
2) CAPE WOLFE, 18% chance of winning, 9-2
3) YES YES YES, 4% chance of winning, 24-1
5) BOLO, 15% chance of winning, 6-1
6) OBVIOUSLY, 35% chance of winning, 9-5

I don’t anticipate getting 9-5 on Obviously, therefore I’ll play a straight exacta of 6-2.

RACE 7

The story of the seventh race is the return of 2015 Sham winner, CALCULATOR (2). While trainer Peter Miller does well with these sorts, it must be noted that Calculator had a very serious leg injury – and there’s no guarantee that he’ll come back as the same horse we saw as a 3-year-old. I’m willing to take a shot against him with two horses, SLEEPWALKER (1) and FUSAICHI SAMURAI (7). Sleepwalker had a disastrous trip in his most recent race, getting stuck behind a wall of horses at the top of the lane while full of run. With a cleaner trip he should be a major player. Fusaichi Samurai broke his maiden at Los Al for Bob Baffert on Dec. 17, and while it wasn’t the most visually appealing effort, it should be noted that the runner-up that day returned to break his maiden in his subsequent start, earning an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. I’ll use both of these runners to begin daily doubles into the eighth race.

RACE 8

The Santa Maria is far from the strongest graded stakes you’ll ever see, and although I’ve never been a huge fan of TARA'S TANGO (8), I think she’s finally found her spot. In a field that features suspect form and suspect quality, I’ll look to take a horse entering this race with solid form. She was arguably best in the Santa Monica here on Jan. 23, and while I’m still a bit concerned about her ability to navigate two turns, the lack of quality in this field may make up the difference. I’ll single her in the second portion of this daily double.

DAILY DOUBLE, RACES 7 & 8: 1 – Sleepwalker, 7 – Fusaichi Samurai / 8 – Tara’s Tango