Bernier: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, April 18
After being underwhelmed by Santa Anita’s featured event Saturday, the Santa Barbara, I was hoping (and expecting) to find other enticing wagering opportunities. Having gone through the entire nine-race card, I can confidently say I truly only find one race MILDLY interesting from a wagering standpoint. Accordingly, I’ll look to play that race individually – as well as hook it up as the second half of a daily double with the aforementioned Santa Barbara.
Race 7
When I first went through the Santa Barbara, I was hoping I’d find at least one horse I could latch on to – simply because I knew I was way against the likely favorite DIVERSY HARBOR (6). I think she’s much better suited going shorter distances, and she’s a complete toss for me. If she wins, so be it. Now comes the real dilemma for myself … if not her, then who?
Reluctantly, I landed on THREE HEARTS (1) on top, but it’s not because I think she’s any sort of cinch in this spot. In the Santa Ana last out, she appeared to have broken the race open at the top of the lane, only to be run down by the talented Graham Motion trainee Hoop of Colour. Three Hearts stretches out today, and I’m hopeful she won’t need to break the race open so early here. She projects to sit a beautiful pocket trip, and I expect her to be right there at the end.
The only other horse I’ll use in this spot is Richard Mandella’s entrant, HABIBI (8). Habibi was making her first start in quite some time last out, and it appeared as though she was prepared to inhale her foes at the top of the lane. She didn’t, and I think it had to do with the fact that she may have needed a race. If she gained some fitness last out, expect a much more complete effort from this mare today. She figures to be forwardly placed and could easily inherit the lead at the top of the lane if FANTICOLA (3) finds the 10 furlongs too taxing and Three Hearts doesn’t have her running shoes on today.
Race 8
I generally stay away from low-level claiming events, but there are quite a few positives in the corner of GREY GIRL GONE (6) today. For starters, she’ll drop in for a tag for the first time since winning her maiden at this distance in June 2014. Second, she sheds the blinkers for the first time in her career – a move trainer Phil D’Amato has had tremendous success with recently (over the past six months, D’Amato’s trainees are 7 for 15 (10 ITM) with a $5.42 ROI when taking the blinkers off for the first time. To take that Formulator Fact a step further, over the past 90 days, D’Amato’s runners are 3 for 4 with a $9.00 ROI when losing the blinks). I’ll single Grey Girl Gone in Santa Anita’s eighth, as well as play her to win – odds pending.
The plays
$10 DOUBLE (races 7,8): 1,8 with 6
$50 to WIN on 6) GREY GIRL GONE at odds of 3-1 or greater