Bernier: How I'd play the pick four on Breeders' Cup Friday at Churchill Downs

Future Stars Friday at the 2018 Breeders’ Cup figures to showcase a little bit of everything: fantastic betting races, tremendously talented runners, and potential Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders in 2019. The pick four sequence comprising races 6-9 appears intriguing - a heavy favorite looms in the first leg, but handicappers can get creative in the remaining three legs in search of value.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF, race 6

NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (6) appears to be a special talent for Chad Brown, and there’s a real chance she trips out in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s already proven herself over testing ground and she owns critical early speed in a race that doesn’t look to have much early zip. She’s strictly the horse to beat. If EAST (14) were drawn a bit better I’d have considered making her an “A,” but she’s stuck outside in the 14 post. East looks to have ability, but that post position may be too much to overcome. I’ll include two deep backups, CONCRETE ROSE (1) and JUST WONDERFUL (4).

A: 6
B: 14
C: 1, 4

JUVENILE FILLIES, race 7

I could easily have made BELLAFINA (10) a lone “A” in this leg, but the more I look at this race the more I think RESTLESS RIDER (4) has a big chance. Bellafina should theoretically trip out in this race, but if for some reason she and Serengeti Empress hook up and duel, Restless Rider could work out the perfect stalking trip in behind them. As deep backups I’ll include VIBRANCE (3) and SIPPICAN HARBOR (8).

A: 4, 10
B: None
C: 3, 8

:: Breeders' Cup PP packages: Get PPs, betting strategies, DRF+ Pro access, and more

JUVENILE TURF, race 8

The Juvenile Turf feels like the most wide-open of the races in this pick four sequence. I’m high on LINE OF DUTY (5) for Charlie Appleby, but this is an evenly matched group and I can’t get too bold with him. FORTY UNDER (4) looks to have real ability and he’s proven over yielding turf. He must be considered a legitimate threat in this race. CURRENT (12) may have the best finish of all the entrants in the Juvenile Turf, but there’s a part of me that wonders if he’ll be able to kick as strongly as he has in the past over what’s likely to be a bit of a bog. Many are making ANTHONY VAN DYCK (14) out to be a potential superstar, but I haven’t been overwhelmed by what I’ve seen on the tape. He can certainly win, but I think he’s far from a slam dunk.

A: 4, 5, 12, 14
B: None
C: None

JUVENILE, race 9

Trained by Bob Baffert, GAME WINNER (9) is the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he’s likely to be a heavy favorite. I’m not picking him, but he’s a must-use in any multi-race wager. The horse I’m most interested in is STANDARD DEVIATION (8) for Chad Brown, but I may be a bit early on this one. There’s a real chance that Standard Deviation is more of a 3-year-old prospect than a Juvenile contender, but I thought he ran quite well at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity and he should get a tremendous pace to run at on Friday. Other contenders to consider include the ultra-impressive COMPLEXITY (6) for Brown and CODE OF HONOR (11) for Shug McGaughey.

A: 8, 9
B: 6, 11
C: None