Bernier: How I'd play Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs

Handicappers Matt Bernier and Kenny Peck are going head to head with $500 to wager on the Kentucky Derby Day card at Churchill Downs.

I had nothing good to report on my front Friday - and the worst part was I hardly had a horse fire. With the exception of Buster Rose, all of my horses fizzled in a major way.

Not to worry, though! The main event is tomorrow, and we'll come back swinging.

Considering the full card of races we have on Kentucky Derby Day, you’d think there would be plenty of things that I’d find appealing to wager on. Unfortunately for me, there are only a few things that truly appeal to me, and that’s where my money will go.

RACE 8: The Humana Distaff as a race itself seems rather uninteresting to me – I think the race begins and ends with reigning Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint champion JUDY THE BEAUTY (#8). Obviously, it’s a horse race and anything can happen, but I’d expect her to fire a big effort in her 2015 debut. I’ll single her to start my 50-cent pick five.

Race 8: 8
Race 9: 3, 4, 5, 8, 11
Race 10: 1, 2, 4
Race 11: 3, 7, 8, 10, 12
Race 12: 4, 8, 15, 18
Total: $150

:: Peck: How I'd play Kentucky Derby Day

RACE 9: The story of the Churchill Downs Stakes is the return of 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion BAYERN (#2). He is a wickedly fast horse, but unfortunately for him he’ll catch a field that looks to be loaded with speed – and quality speed at that. PRIVATE ZONE (#4) is a legitimate Grade 1 sprinter and on his best day can take down a horse like Bayern; that being said, I think we’re looking at a pressure cooker on the engine in this heat, and I’m going to look toward a horse that can sit and pounce off of horses. C. ZEE (#1) has blossomed into a very nice graded-stakes-caliber sprinter, and I think he can take advantage of the immense amount of early zip signed on in here. I’ll key him around both Bayern and C. Zee.

$20 TRIFECTA: 1 / 2, 4 / 2, 4 = $40
$10 TRIFECTA: 2, 4 / 1 / 2, 4 = $20
$10 TRIFECTA: 2, 4 / 2, 4 / 1 = $20
Total: $80

RACE 10: From a fan’s perspective, I can’t help but root for STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (#8) when she takes on the boys in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – and who knows, maybe her odds will warrant a possible wager when the time comes. However, I think there’s a razor sharp horse in this field that has become a completely new animal since being gelded. CHOCOLATE RIDE (#10) has delivered back-to-back strong efforts at Fair Grounds and figures to be the controlling speed in this spot. Yes, he’s getting the ultimate class test – but I think he’s sitting on another big effort at what should be a square price.

$50 WIN/SHOW: 10 Chocolate Ride = $100
Total: $100

RACE 11: Here we are – all the months and months of scrutiny are over; it’s time for Derby 141! AMERICAN PHAROAH (#18) appears to be a legitimate favorite in a contentious Derby, but I still have some questions about this son of Pioneerof the Nile (most notably distance limitations). DORTMUND (#8) seems to have all the tools necessary to be a Kentucky Derby champion, and I think he’s a legitimate threat to take the Run for the Roses. All that being said, I couldn’t help but love the way FROSTED (#15) won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last out. The ability to sit off horses and come from off the pace should prove enormous for this son of Tapit, and I expect he and Joel Rosario to be making the “winning” move on the far turn as the field hits the top of the lane. I’ll key all of my plays around Frosted in Derby 141.

$50 WIN/SHOW: 15 Frosted = $100
$14 EXACTA: 15 / 4, 8, 18 = $42
$8 EXACTA: 4, 8, 18 / 15 = $24
$1 SUPERFECTA: 8, 15 / 8, 15 / 4, 18 / 4, 18 = $4
Total: $170