Bernier: How I'd play Gulfstream Park for Saturday, April 1
It’s Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park and guaranteed wagering pools are everywhere. The Rainbow Six is guaranteed at $2 million, the late pick five at $500,000 and the late pick four at $750,000. I’m particularly interested in the pick five, which comprises races 10-14.
RACE 10 – HONEY FOX
CELESTINE (5) is strictly the horse to beat following her smashing gate-to-wire score in the Sand Springs here on March 4. She’s a 3-5 morning-line favorite, but a subpar Formulator Fact for Christophe Clement (Past Two Years, Turf, Winner Last Out, 2nd Off Layoff, Route: 2/30, $0.80 ROI) is forcing me to add another runner to my ticket. LINDA (7) concluded 2016 in fine fashion, finishing a solid second in the Valley View at Keeneland before scoring in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs under the lights. Making her first start as a 4-year-old, Linda has every right to improve for trainer Ian Wilkes. If she does, she’ll be a legitimate threat to upset Celestine.
RACE 11 – GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS
In a race where I don’t love anyone, I’m forced to go three deep. The logical contenders are SALTY (6) and NONNA BELLA (7), and I’ll be using them both. On paper, each of these fillies has a significant advantage over their competition. But they’ll each be trying two turns for the first time, and there’s no guarantee either will excel going longer (although Nonna Bella’s pedigree suggests additional distance should benefit her). I’m also throwing in a bit of a wild longshot in SPRING MIST (4). Spring Mist enters the Oaks on the heels of a rather weak maiden score at Tampa Bay Downs on March 10, but it’s noteworthy that her two best races have come routing. She figures to be forwardly placed beneath Javier Castellano, and speed has done well going two turns at Gulfstream all meet.
RACE 12 – CUTLER BAY
INHERITTHEWIND (6) never looked like a loser on debut for trainer Mark Casse, and his finish in that race going 7 1/2 furlongs suggests he’ll relish additional ground. He should be forwardly placed. Casse has done well over the past few years with maiden winners making their second start in a turf route. DOVER CLIFFS (8) has the look of a stakes-caliber turf router for Christophe Clement, as he’s earned Beyer Speed Figures of 83 and 86 in his two starts. He had little excuse in his loss in his career debut. He actually hit the front only to relinquish the lead late. But his maiden score was strong, albeit with a perfect trip. SIR SEBASTIAN (7) showcased an electric turn of foot in a victory here on March 16, and if a quick pace develops in front of him, he should be rolling late from the back.
RACE 13 – PAN AMERICAN
PATTERSON CROSS (5) had a miserably wide trip throughout in the Mac Diarmida here last month and still finished like a freight train. After nearly wiring the field in the McKnight two starts back, this son of Arch came from last most recently. He can be much closer to the pace than he was in the Mac D, and that could be the difference maker. With all due respect to Taghleeb and Sadler’s Joy, if Patterson Cross has a more favorable trip in the Pan American, he’ll be tough to beat.
RACE 14 – FLORIDA DERBY
ALWAYS DREAMING (4) has yet to run particularly fast on paper, but visually he has looked the part in his two starts as a 3-year-old, both for trainer Todd Pletcher. There appears to be some suspect speed drawn to his inside, and I wouldn’t expect John Velazquez to get cute – if Always Dreaming breaks, I expect him to be sent to the front. Maybe this company proves to be too much for the son of Bodemeister to handle, but something tells me Always Dreaming is going to run a big race on Saturday afternoon. The most likely winner in the race is GUNNEVERA (11), who breaks from the far outside. Outside posts going two turns at Gulfstream Park are historically awful, but his closing running style should alleviate any worries about the poor draw. Look for Javier Castellano to break Gunnevera, take him back, and make one run rounding the far turn.
THE PLAY
50-cent play: 5, 7 / 4, 6, 7 / 6, 7, 8 / 5 / 4, 11 = $18