Bernier: How I’d play Del Mar on Wednesday, July 30
Truth be told, Wednesday’s eight-race card “Where the Turf Meets the Surf” doesn’t do much for me from a wagering standpoint. Having said that, there are a couple of things that I think could be intriguing and I’m willing to at least explore making a few plays.
Race 2
* There’s no denying that Live for Now is the horse to beat. Her Beyer Speed Figures are simply better than the rest of the field, and that clearly makes her a contender – but I want to play against her. Her Beyers have steadily improved each and every start, but at the end of the day she’s 0 for 7 in her young career, and I don’t want to take a horse who’s likely to go off at odds anywhere between 8-5 and 5-2 and hasn’t had her picture taken entering her eighth career start.
* Bob Baffert’s runner West Riding is the logical horse to take a shot against Live for Now with, but she’s another filly who won’t offer any value. She’s obviously a player, but she won’t be taking my money
* If I had to take a shot in this spot, I’d be leaning toward Capraia. She was off slowly in her debut before running on with interest, and on Wednesday she’ll receive Lasix for the first time. The latest work out here at Del Mar clearly wasn’t too swift, but Neil Drysdale can move horses forward in their second career starts and I’m willing to explore the possibility of taking a shot with her. Her 4-1 morning line seems a bit short. I’ll make a win wager on her should she go off at 7-1 or higher.
Races 6 & 7
* If you take a look at my Del Mar Babies wagering strategy for Wednesday, you’ll see who I think the contenders are in the two 2-year-old races. I’ll try to hook the two races up in daily doubles, but approach them differently from a structural standpoint.
* In the sixth, I like three horses in particular: P Club, Bollente, and North of Oswego. Having said that, it’s a baby race going long on the grass with numerous first time starters – anything could happen.
* In the seventh, I think it’s a two-horse race, but with much of the emphasis being placed on Wake Up Nick, who has been super impressive in each of his victories thus far. The other horse I like in the race is Atta’ Boy Woody.
* My “main” daily double play will be using the three runners from the sixth with only Wake Up Nick in the Graduation Stakes, and I’ll look to play it (probable payoffs pending) for roughly five times what I’ll play my “backup” doubles for. My “backup” double play will involve me hitting the ALL button in the sixth race and using both Wake Up Nick and Atta’ Boy Woody in the seventh.