Bernier: How I'd play Del Mar for Sunday, Nov. 9
5th race – Maiden $40,000, 7 furlongs, Polytrack
Home Maid Brownie drops back in for a tag for the first time since her Aug. 23 race here at Del Mar, and the biggest thing I like about her here is the first time turning back to a sprint. She ran respectably when showing speed going long on grass last out at Santa Anita, and if she can replicate something close to the 72 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in the Del Mar race here in August she will be tough to handle. I think she offers fair value at odds of 7-2 or greater and will also look to hook her up in a straight exacta with Sheza Dish; the minimum probable exacta payoff I would accept for this exacta would be $57 for a $2 wager.
8th and 9th races – Betty Grable Stakes, Maiden Special
This is a big if, but if Warren’s Veneda runs in the Betty Grable I really like her chances. She has shown a penchant for any sort of synthetic surface, and I think the return effort going down the hill at Santa Anita last out wasn’t as bad as it may appear on paper. Although she may not go off as the favorite in this spot, I do believe that she will take her fair share of money. In order to try to create some added value, I will look to hook up Warren’s Veneda in the late daily double with two runners from the nightcap – Itsgettinhotinhere and Fort Cady.
Itsgettinhotinhere figures to take quite a bit of money off her latest effort going two turns on grass at Santa Anita, but there is a part of me that wonders whether or not any sort of improvement should be expected in this gelding’s sixth career start. Fort Cady is the runner who figures to offer the most value. On paper, this son of Lucky Pulpit appears to be out of his league – 0 for 6 lifetime, 0 for 1 on grass (albeit going down the hill at Santa Anita), and jumping up from the state-bred maiden $50,000 level into protected company. However, I actually really like seeing horses climb the class ladder, and the fact that this colt is trying two turns on grass for the first time doesn’t scare me at all. I’m willing to find out if Alonzo Quinonez can help this horse graduate Sunday afternoon.