Bernier: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Nov. 30
It’s closing day for the Bing Crosby meet at Del Mar, and while most people will be focusing on the pick six carryover and the mandatory payout for that wager, I’ll look at a few individual races to try to make some decent scores on.
RACE 2
I thought DOMINO JOHNSON (5) ran very well in his debut going down the hill at Santa Anita last month, and I see no reason this son of Stephen Got Even can’t take the necessary step forward here in his second lifetime start to graduate. He showed serious speed in that effort, and we very often see speed horses excel in these five-furlong sprints; 4-1 seems like fair value to me on the win end, and I’ll look to key him in exactas with FOREST CHATTER (4), LETABA (7), and ACT (8).
RACE 4
NUMBER FIVE (2) was my pick in the Let It Ride Stakes here Nov. 8, and I thought he ran a very solid race when finishing second at odds of 12-1. Although he steps out of the stakes level, it’s not as if he’s getting much class relief – this is a rather salty group of runners. That said, I think he works out another nice trip here today, and I’ll be willing to play him at 5-1 or better. Another intriguing runner is DECISIVE EDGE (11) for Jerry Hollendorfer and Alex Solis. A handicapping angle I’ve had success with in the past is with horses who take quite a few starts to break their maiden only to bounce right back next out and defeat winners in their first try. The 5-1 morning line doesn’t sound very appealing, but at 7-1 or higher, I’d be interested.
RACE 8
The final Grade 1 of the fall meet is the Matriarch, and QUEEN OF THE SAND (1) figures to get another nice setup underneath Mike Smith. She was super impressive in winning the Kathryn Crosby Stakes here Nov. 7, and she’s shown that she has an affinity for this Del Mar turf course. With horses like LA TIA (3), DISCREET MARQ (5), and SHEZA SMOKE SHOW (8) entered, there figures to be an honest pace, and I think Queen of The Sand mows them all down late. Odds of 4-1 seem fair on the win end.