Bernier: How I'd play Del Mar on Saturday, Aug. 2
Races 4-5
The first horse who really caught my eye on Saturday’s card is Loufoque in the fourth race. This filly is making her first start off a 9 1/2-month layoff, but she’s been very solid in her first two career starts, and she’ll be getting Lasix for the first time.
There won’t be much value on the win end, so I’ll look to hook her up in doubles involving some 2-year-olds in the fifth race. The fifth race appears to be wide-open, and I’ll use five horses to hopefully get this double home.
Call to Congrats and Ritzy Tags likely will be the two fillies who I put most of my money on, as I trust their connections and always expect first-time starters from their trainers’ barns to be ready to fire at first asking. Don’t Blame Me is the only filly in the field with racing experience, and it could prove vital in this spot.
I’ll also use a little bit of Fancy and Flashy and She’s Reddy. Fancy and Flashy’s work tab is a bit on the light side leading up to her debut, but anything Peter Miller sends out should be taken seriously. She’s Reddy will hopefully be my price play here. She goes out for a trainer who doesn’t do well with 2-year-olds or first-time starters, but Mike Smith is intrigued enough to take the mount.
Race 8
The Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch features a group of seven fillies and mares, and Iotapa is likely to be a heavy favorite off her smashing victory in the Grade 1 Vanity at Santa Anita in June. But not only am I going to try to beat her, I’m going to toss her completely.
Her victory last out at Santa Anita was accomplished on a heavily speed-favoring track, and the 109 Beyer Speed Figure she earned is so far above anything she’s ever done that I can’t help but think a major regression is coming
The other filly who is likely to take her fair share of money is Bob Baffert’s Fiftyshadesofhay. Fiftyshadesofhay exits a rather dull effort in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs last time out, and I question just how good she really is. You know what you’ll get from this daughter of Pulpit – a Beyer in the low 90s and a finish in the money. I’ll use her to round out exotics, but I’ll play against her on the win side of things.
The two horses I’ll focus my plays around will be Doinghardtimeagain and Parranda. As much as I like these two fillies, plenty of questions surround each of them.
Doinghardtimeagain comes off a nice win in the Great Lady M Stakes at Los Al last month, but it could be argued that she did nothing more than beat inferior competition. On Saturday, she’ll be facing much tougher, and she’ll need to take a big step forward to win. I’m hoping she reverts back to her summer form from 2013 and can find an effort like the one she delivered in the Hollywood Oaks.
Parranda has never run on a synthetic surface, and that’s the major question. Will she take to it? Her workouts haven’t been overly fast, but I expect her to work out a nice trip, and she should be prepared to pounce as the field turns for home, hopefully at a decent price.