Bernier: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, July 4

The Independence Day card at Belmont Park is filled with quality, and the late pick four could prove to be a lucrative one – if you can beat one (or two) of the likely heavy favorites throughout the sequence. The late pick four consists of races 8-11.

Race 8, Belmont Derby

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The two big names in the race are the two most likely winners of the Belmont Derby, BOLO (2) and DIVISIDERO (3). Bolo has a major tactical advantage in this race and that could ultimately be the difference in the outcome. Divisidero has proven himself to be amongst the most talented 3-year-olds in the country regardless of surface, and as long as he has room to run he will be an obvious threat. If you’re looking for a runner outside of these two, perhaps the lightly raced GRANNY’S KITTEN (9) could offer value in this opening leg.

A: 2,3
B: 9
C: 1

Race 9, Suburban Handicap

TONALIST (6) lays over this field on paper, and if he runs his race he’s very clearly the most likely winner. That being said, I can’t help but be a bit concerned regarding the removal of blinkers (again)…if he’s still running winning races, why make a change? An intriguing longshot in this race is STREET BABE (1). I will admit I’ve been a fan of this gelding for quite some time now, and maybe I’m just being an apologist when I forgive each of his past two efforts (hated the bullring at Charles Town, hated the wet track at Penn National). I still think there’s plenty of room for improvement with this Michael Dilger trainee, and in an ideal world Joel Rosario sends him from the inside and contests the pace throughout.

A: 1,6
B: 3
C: 2

Race 10, Belmont Oaks

This race could easily be called, “The Lady Eli Invitational.” As much as I truly believe LADY ELI (2) is a superstar, I think the price on her is going to be miniscule in a 14-horse field. Add in the fact that she will be contesting 10 furlongs for the first time in her career and I feel obligated to at least try and beat her here. I’m very interested in SENTIERO ITALIA (11) and I will be betting her to win at odds of 6-1 or greater. This Godolphin filly is multi-dimensional from a running style standpoint, and I think she’s only going to continue to improve. If she can work out a pace-pressing trip from the outside underneath Luis Saez I think she can be the one to hand Lady Eli her first career loss.

A: 2,11
B: 8
C: 6

Race 11, Belmont Sprint

I’m hoping to be alive headed into the payoff leg of the late pick four, mainly because I believe PRIVATE ZONE (3) is vulnerable. He was drifting about badly down the lane in the Met Mile last out – a distance which is too far for him. Although he will cut back to a friendlier distance, I can’t help but think this horse is in serious need of a break and I will take a shot against him. THE BIG BEAST (2) ran a troubled fourth in the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct in April, and if he finds himself in the clear with no traffic he will be very tough to deal with. In my opinion he’s the most likely winner of this race. As far as my “A” horses are concerned, I will also use MOONLIGHT SONG (8). This Charlton Baker trainee returned in this same spot last year off a layoff and ran a credible fourth; seven furlongs may be pushing his limits, but if this New York-bred fires big off the bench I think he can shock the world at a big number.

A: 2,8
B: 3
C: 1