Bernier: How to bet Saturday’s late pick four at Santa Anita

Saturday’s late pick four at Santa Anita looks like a great betting opportunity, co-headlined by the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and Grade 1 Vanity Handicap. The four-race sequence is bookended by a cheaper claiming event for nonwinners of two lifetime, as well a California-bred maiden special weight down the hill. The one horse in the sequence that many will be keying on is Obviously in the Shoemaker, but if you’re able to beat him, the pick four is sure to pay nicely.

Race 6

The kickoff leg to this pick four is a $12,500 nonwinners-of-two-lifetime event, and it features a rather motley group of fillies and mares. There could not be a more stark contrast in field quality between the sixth and seventh races, as this field contains horses who are 1 for 18, 1 for 19, 1 for 46, 1 for 20, and 1 for 17 lifetime. In a race where mediocrity is bountiful, I’m always trying to find horses that are lightly raced or trying something new for the first time – if for no other reason because we already know what the horses who have amassed such dreadful records truly are.

Red Barris gets some class relief and exits a key race that has produced two next-out winners. Coincidentally, each of those next-out winners were ridden by Fernando Perez, who happens to pick up the mount on Red Barris in this spot.

Nueva Fortune was hung wide throughout in her latest start and tired, but with a better trip, she could have a say in the outcome. She won her maiden here at Santa Anita at the end of March, and the jockey/trainer combo of Bill Spawr and Agapito Delgadillo have hit at 25 percent at Santa Anita for 2013-14 with a strong return on investment of $3.47.

Wicked City Woman is an intriguing runner here, as she won a race at Los Alamitos last month going 870 yards for trainer Louis Bradvica. She’ll get Lasix for the first time, and she really doesn’t need to be much in order to beat this field.

Brandon’s Princess has had her fair share of opportunities to revisit the winner’s circle for the second time in her career, but I’m really intrigued by the first-off-the-claim angle for trainer Mark Glatt. Glatt hits at 28 percent with this move, and he’s 3 for 11 with a $5.50 ROI over the past five years when calling upon Tyler Baze in this situation.

Race 7

The Shoemaker Mile showcases a field of turf milers, and many of them are very likely to be involved in the Breeders’ Cup Mile later this year at Santa Anita.

Obviously is the most likely winner in his spot, but I’m bothered by how slow his final quarter come-home times are. I realize he generally runs his competition off their feet throughout the early stages, but I fear that this kind of running style will catch up to him at some point. It could be argued that Obviously could get loose on the lead, but I believe Winning Prize and Pulpit’s Express (should he run) won’t be too far away throughout the opening quarters.

Tom’s Tribute is another quality runner in this field that should be within a few lengths of the lead, but I have to question whether or not he’s of the same caliber as the best in this field. He’s a use, but not as an “A”.

Summer Front is a hard hitter who rallied nicely to run second in the Fort Marcy at Belmont last month, a race in which Five Iron shook loose of the field and took them gate to wire. It’s worth noting that speed held relatively well that day at Belmont, so Summer Front’s performance can be upgraded slightly. The runner I’m most intrigued by is Jack Milton. Coming off a scintillating victory in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont Park at the end of May, trainer Todd Pletcher ships this son of War Front across country to tackle a salty bunch.

It’s also worth noting that Javier Castellano makes the trip to California to ride Jack Milton, and I don’t think that should go overlooked. There’s a major card at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and it’s very conceivable that Castellano could have had his choice of mounts in races like the Stephen Foster and Matt Winn. Instead, he’ll be riding 3,000 miles away – which tells me he believes Jack Milton’s performance in the Poker is just the tip of the iceberg. I think he’s a major player here.

Race 8

The Vanity is the penultimate race in this pick four sequence, and it could very well be my “make or break” race.

Grace Hall returned from a layoff of more than a year and ran very credibly in the Grade 2 Ruffian on May 11 at Belmont Park, and I think she’s the main play here. The fractions in the Ruffian were swift, and Grace Hall stalked the leaders throughout, only getting edged out by Fiftyshadesofhay, a horse who closed into that hot pace scenario. She should get a nice, stalking trip just off the likes off Iotapa, Let Faith Arise, and Yahilwa and will be ready to pounce as the field turns for home. It’s also nice to hear that trainer Bill Mott is 3 for 14 over the past five years with horses making their second starts off the layoff in California. She’ll be my only “A” in this race.

I’ll also use Let Faith Arise and Iotapa on my tickets.

Race 9

The payoff leg of this late pick four is a tricky statebred maiden special weight going down the hill, and it’s a race in which I’m going to spread.

You could go any number of ways with an actual selection on top, but I’ll give the slight lean to Tangelo. Tangelo ran on willingly down the lane in her debut while displaying some greenness, as she switched back to her left lead late in the running. With that educational run under her belt, I’m expecting her to take a step forward – and she could be dangerous if she does.

Tangelo is my top selection, but I’ll be spreading deep in the final leg of this pick four – so deep that I’ll be using every runner in some capacity.

As you can see, Ticketmaker allows you to emphasize your strongest opinions accordingly. The ticket that contains all “A” entries will be played for $2 – four times the base denomination of 50 cents. The “A’s” with one “B” tickets will be played for $1, and the rest of the tickets will be played for the standard 50 cents.

Best of luck!