Bernier: Belmont Park late pick four for Saturday, Sept. 10

Saturday’s late pick four at Belmont Park intrigues me, mainly because there’s a filly in the nightcap I believe to be a legitimate contender whom I can key most of my wagers around. One thing at a time, though – let’s get through the first three legs of the sequence before worrying about a single in the finale.

RACE 7

CONCOMITANT (3) is certainly the “other” Chad Brown entrant in this maiden special weight affair, but this son of Giant’s Causeway has every right to run well at first asking. A $150,000 purchase at the Keeneland September sale last year, Concomitant is out of the stakes-winning turf mare Mrs Kipling. It appears as though there’s some quality in this field, but there’s no reason to believe this colt won’t give a good account of himself in his debut. AMERICAN DELUXE (5) may need a race or two before we see his best, but he’s by Melbourne Cup-winning sire Americain and is a half-sibling to 2014 Travers winner V. E. Day. Distance is no concern for this Jimmy Jerkens trainee, and it’s worth noting that he worked with graded stakes-placed turf router Jay Gatsby on Aug. 28. TICONDEROGA (6) is likely to go off somewhere near odds-on in his second lifetime start for Brown; he’s a son of multiple graded stakes-winning turf router Keertana, and his connections paid $850,000 for him at the Keeneland September sale. He very nearly won his maiden at first asking Aug. 13, but today he’ll add blinkers for the first time – something that may be a bit of a concern if you’re a Formulator user. Over the past five years with horses making their second career start and sporting blinkers for the first time on turf, Brown’s runners are 0 for 16, with only five hitting the board. Admittedly, a small sample size, but it’s something to consider at a very short price. KISS THE TOAD (9) was no match for Ticonderoga at Saratoga on Aug. 13, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t improve while making his second start routing for trainer Tom Morley.

RACE 8

UNCLE SOUTHERN (3) was strong for Linda Rice in his most recent start, winning a $25,000 claimer for fun. Rice jumps him up to the $40,000 statebred N2X level today, and another beautiful trip likely awaits. LOUISVILLE FIRST (4) cuts back to his preferred trip going one turn and figures to be reasonably close to the pace throughout. The distance is what got this Weaver trainee beaten at Saratoga on Aug. 11, not talent; there’s reason to believe he looms as a major threat while taking on elders today going shorter. STARTWITHSILVER (6) hasn’t done anything wrong in his brief career, and it’s worth noting he returns to the scene of his fastest race. It’s fair to believe that a replica of his May 21 effort makes him the Rice trainee they’ll all have to beat – not Uncle Southern.

RACE 9

DATA DRIVEN (2) is no superstar, but the return to one turn should help his cause. In a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace, it will be up to Joel Rosario to get this son of Northern Afleet into the race earlier than usual in order to factor late. ARAQEEL (5) is the kind of horse I despise playing; after winning his maiden impressively in his career debut on Valentine’s Day 2015, this gray has lost six straight. Brown dangled him for $40,000 in his most recent start, and trainer Steve Asmussen decided to take him. Asmussen has done very well with these sorts over the past two years (past two years, first after claimed by, route to sprint: 5 for 15, 10 in the money, $3.51 ROI), and I’ll hope he can get this one back to his best form. BLACK EAGLE (6) is essentially the opposite of Araqeel – and I generally love playing these types. Black Eagle didn’t win his maiden until career start No. 10 for trainer Bill Mott, and it’s worth noting that it came in his turf-sprint debut. He returns against winners for the first time today and is again sprinting on the grass. If the light bulb has indeed turned on, this Tapit colt could pay a hefty mutual.

RACE 10

Here we are, the main event. The race – and the filly – I’ve been waiting for. UNSPOKEN MISSION (7) had an absolutely disastrous trip in her career debut at Saratoga on Aug. 25. Racing wide around the far turn, this daughter of multiple stakes-winning mare Unspoken Word was pinched severely as the field turned for home. At that point, Joel Rosario angled his filly to the inside, only to begin running up on the stopping pacesetter. Unspoken Mission threw her head about and was forced to alter course severely, essentially ending her race. This Nicks filly was full of run at the top of the lane and was never able to strut her stuff; with a cleaner trip today, Unspoken Mission can get the job done against a less-than-stellar group of New York-bred fillies.