Bernier: Analyzing the Kentucky Derby pace scenario

Assessing the pace situation in any race is a critical element of the puzzle known as handicapping, but it’s especially important in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Over the years, many horses with tactical speed have put themselves in ideal positions to sit and pounce before prevailing against their 3-year-old counterparts, but a stalking running style isn’t a prerequisite for Derby glory.

Horses have won as deep closers when the pace is fast enough, and horses have wired the field when allowed to dictate things by themselves on the front. This year’s pace projects to be a fast one, according to TimeformUS; let’s assess the running styles of this year’s Kentucky Derby entrants and evaluate their prospects given a potentially quick pace situation.

EARLY RUNNERS

WAR OF WILL (1) could move into the second post position if Haikal is withdrawn from the Derby (foot abscess); whether he moves over a stall or not, he’s likely to be aggressively ridden from the inside. War of Will is likely to be forwardly placed along with the likes of IMPROBABLE (5), VEKOMA (6), and MAXIMUM SECURITY (7). All four runners have displayed the ability to sit off a target and be effective, but given their post positions and their vicinity to one another, there’s a chance that some, if not all, of these horses are aggressively ridden from the gate to establish early position. For what it’s worth, TimeformUS projects Vekoma to clear to the lead.

STALKERS

Depending on who is sent and how fast they go, one or two of the aforementioned “early” runners could find themselves in this type of position, along with the likes of TAX (2), GRAY MAGICIAN (4), CUTTING HUMOR (10), SPINOFF (19), and the maiden BODEXPRESS (21). The runners breaking from the outside will likely be on a mission to slot over and save as much ground as possible entering the first turn, potentially creating traffic trouble for horses who are likely to be positioned in midpack.

MIDPACK RUNNERS

The next throng of horses would appreciate some swift early fractions, given the likelihood that they’ll be five to 10 lengths off the early pace. Major contenders comprising this group include GAME WINNER (16), ROADSTER (17), and TACITUS (8); all three have the ability to be slightly closer to the front if the pace fails to develop, but it would seem more likely that this is where they’ll be positioned early. Along with these three, BY MY STANDARDS (3) and LONG RANGE TODDY (18) could find themselves here, too.

CLOSERS

For the horses with closing running styles, swift early fractions wouldn’t be appreciated – they’re necessary if they’re to have a chance at winning Derby 145. Horses like PLUS QUE PARFAIT (9), HAIKAL (11), CODE OF HONOR (13), WIN WIN WIN (14), MASTER FENCER (15), and COUNTRY HOUSE (20) will need hot fractions to have any chance. If the pace doesn’t materialize, these horses could pass tired ones and pick up some pieces late, perhaps best being used underneath in exotic wagers.