The Kentucky Derby generally features an honest pace, and the 144th running this year appears to be no different. While there may not be many true front-runners in this year’s Derby, the number of horses who like to be forwardly placed and who possess solid tactical speed should ensure a genuine pace throughout. The TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests the likely favorite JUSTIFY (7) will be cutting out the fractions in Derby 144, but I have a hard time believing that considering where he drew in relation to a confirmed speed horse in PROMISES FULFILLED (3). Promises Fulfilled has been on the lead at the pace call of all five of his lifetime starts, and it seems unlikely that the Kentucky Derby will be the first where he’s not in that position. Drawing to his outside, it would seem natural for Mike Smith to park Justify just off Promises Fulfilled’s flank entering the first turn and taking over as the field enters the far turn. FLAMEAWAY (4) is another that’s likely to be forwardly placed throughout, but stamina is a major concern for this Mark Casse trainee. NOBLE INDY (19) may have been the biggest loser of the post position draw, as the outside draw more or less forces Florent Geroux’s hand; Noble Indy needs to be sent to establish some position and avoid being hung too wide entering the first turn. :: View a complete list of DRF resources and content related to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5 Once you get past the horses most likely to comprise the lead pack entering the first turn, things become a bit of a scramble. The break in any horse race is critical, but even more so in the Kentucky Derby; anyone that’s a bit slow into stride runs the risk of being bounced around and shuffled back, compromising their chances significantly. MENDELSSOHN (14) breaking from the outermost post of the main starting gate should be in a solid position entering the first turn, as the horses drawn immediately to his outside (INSTILLED REGARD, MAGNUM MOON, SOLOMINI, VINO ROSSO) don’t appear to possess as much natural speed as this son of Scat Daddy does. From there, the likes of Magnum Moon (16), ENTICED (12), GOOD MAGIC (6), AUDIBLE (5), BRAVAZO (13), BOLT D’ORO (11), and Vino Rosso (18) are likely to sort themselves out in and amongst one another. Beyond that point, you’re dealing with runners that will do their best running toward the end of the race, including Instilled Regard (15), HOFBURG (9), FREE DROP BILLY (2), Solomini (17), COMBATANT (20), LONE SAILOR (8), FIRENZE FIRE (1) and MY BOY JACK (10). If the pace heats up on the front end, these horses should have every opportunity to come running late (with a clean trip); if the pace is moderate, their chances will diminish significantly.