Historically, horses exiting the UAE Derby haven’t fared well at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but things could be different in 2018. MENDELSSOHN was exceptional when winning this year’s UAE Derby on March 31 at Meydan, scoring by more than 18 lengths for trainer Aidan O’Brien. While it’s true that Mendelssohn took advantage of a speed-favoring strip, there are other reasons to believe his talent is uncommon and he possesses the ability to win the Kentucky Derby. This son of Scat Daddy is a half-sibling to both Beholder and Into Mischief, he’s won his last three races in three different countries on three different surfaces, and he’s already shown the ability to sit off the pace and be as effective as he was in Dubai when on the lead. Breaking from post 14 should allow Ryan Moore to position Mendelssohn just off the speeds in the clear, giving him every opportunity to win the Derby if he’s good enough. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott sends out HOFBURG in the Kentucky Derby, and the fact that he’s even here should grab your attention. Mott is known for giving horses time and placing them where they belong when they belong there. That Hofburg is running in the Derby in his fourth start speaks volumes about his ability. This son of Tapit is bred to relish the additional distance, as his half-sibling Emollient excelled with distance. Saturday may or may not be Hofburg’s day, but there’s a real case to be made that he’s the horse with the most long-term potential running in Derby 144. JUSTIFY deserves to be the favorite based on what he’s done in his brief racing career. A perfect 3 for 3, this son of Scat Daddy has earned Beyer Speed Figures of 101 or greater in all three starts, a feat few other horses in history can claim. Justify is as well connected as a horse can possibly be for a race like the Kentucky Derby, being trained by Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert and ridden by Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith. The shadow of Apollo looms over Justify as a horse unraced at 2 attempting to win the Derby, but based on what he’s accomplished, that doesn’t seem out of the question. BOLT D’ORO was no match for Justify in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, but there’s reason to believe the race shape that day didn’t work for this son of Medaglia d’Oro. With a more honest and contested pace on the front end, look for Bolt d’Oro to give a good account of himself. :: View a complete list of DRF resources and content related to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5