Bernier: 2017 Belmont Stakes analysis

The Belmont Stakes features a group of 3-year-olds who are either inconsistent, unproven at the graded-stakes level, or a combination of the two. With Wednesday’s defection of last year’s juvenile male champion, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry was made the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite, but it wouldn’t be a stunner to see other horses vie for favoritism as post time approaches.

Tactical speed is always an asset, but especially so in a race like the Belmont Stakes. The Belmont isn’t typically won by a dynamic performance. The 12-furlong Test of the Champion usually becomes a war of attrition, with one-paced runners who can be forwardly placed taking advantage. While he may be incredibly slow from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, TWISTED TOM can work out a pressing trip from the rail beneath Javier Castellano, and his pedigree suggests that the additional distance in the Belmont may work to his advantage. Twisted Tom has the classic appearance of a grinder, churning out moderate fraction after moderate fraction. If he’s able to stay within range of the pacesetters, he could upset the Triple Crown’s third jewel at a giant price.

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EPICHARIS makes the trip to the United States for the Belmont Stakes, his first race in 11 weeks. A son of Gold Allure, Epicharis was highly thought of heading into the UAE Derby this year, but a head-scratching defeat to Thunder Snow leaves me a bit concerned about his overall class. It’s not that he lost to a quality horse in Thunder Snow – it’s how he lost that bothers me. Epicharis led every step of the UAE Derby, only to get nipped at the wire by a wandering Thunder Snow. It won’t be a surprise if Epicharis prevails Saturday, but at a short price, I’ll take a shot against him.

LOOKIN AT LEE will be the only horse to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown this year, and he’s as honest a horse as you’ll find. Race shape is always a concern for a one-run closer like Lookin At Lee, as he’s totally dependent on a fast early pace falling apart late and accentuating his closing kick. I’m not convinced the pace is going to be fast, so I’ll only use him underneath in exotics.

IRISH WAR CRY is the most polarizing horse in the race, as his best is simply better than anything any other horse is capable of. Having said that, it’s anyone’s guess as to which Irish War Cry we’re going to see Saturday – the horse who dominated the Wood Memorial two starts back or the horse who came to a crawl turning for home in the Kentucky Derby.