Daily Racing Form New York handicapper Mike Beer and TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona provide their selections, analysis, and suggested wagers for the 2020 Belmont Stakes card on June 20, 2020, at Belmont Park.

Schedule

Top 4 picks for each race on the card from both Beer and Aragona (Posted by 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 18)

Analysis of the top 10 races on the card, with Beer and Aragona each providing analysis of five races and offering commentary on their colleague’s analysis. (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, June 19)

Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis and feedback (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, June 19)

Tickets for multi-leg tickets created by both Beer and Aragona for the big guaranteed-pool wagers (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, June 19)

Note: For easy access on Belmont Stakes week, please bookmark this page.

If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches by 11:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, June 20.

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $75k

Mike’s Analysis:

The interesting things about the opener from a betting perspective are that it handicaps relatively wide open, with a big field of mostly unproven talent, and that it has a favorite on the morning line that you are probably supposed to be trying to beat.

That favorite is #8 Scanno and, while he appeared to have some potential early on in his career, he has not panned out and does not really deserve another chance, especially if he is indeed a short price.

Once getting past the favorite, I suppose you have to decide what to do with the first-time starters in this field, especially the entry from the powerful Klaravich/Chad Brown team- #1 Conglomerate and #1A Traffic Pattern. Personally, I didn't want firsters in this race bu,t if I use one it will be #2 Sea City. He has an interesting pedigree for an underrated trainer and, unlike the entry, he is going to be a price in this race.

Ultimately, I decided to take a shot with #9 Striking Speed, but will only do so if he goes off at at least his morning-line odds. While I do wish he had more pedigree for this surface switch, he is by a good turf sire and really did run well in his debut going a mile on dirt. His trainer excels with maidens after a start, and this gelding may have found the right field, assuming he can handle grass.

#7 Holy Emperor ran fine in his lone turf race while going longer at Gulfstream, and #11 Turn of Events has plenty of races that make him competitive here, though neither of those horses is that exciting from a wagering perspective.

David’s Response:

I wasn’t looking to get as creative as Mike in this opener. We disagree somewhat on the potential favorite #8 Scanno. I feel he’s clearly the horse to beat and – with the exception of his last start – he has just been facing slightly better fields all winter in Florida. I’ll concede that he was supposed to win as the favorite last time, as he had dead aim on the winner and just couldn’t forge past late. On the other hand, I wasn’t enamored with some of the rides he got before that, so I like this switch to Javier Castellano. He’s not the kind of horse I’m ever going to strongly endorse, but I couldn’t find a proper alternative.

The #1 Klaravich Stables entry is obviously dangerous, though it is worth noting that Chad Brown is just 3 for 29 (10%, $0.60 ROI) over the past five years with first-time starters in maiden-claiming turf routes. Their pedigrees didn’t do a whole lot for me, and I couldn’t get a strong feel for whether either one is training particularly well.

I can’t blame Mike for taking a shot with a horse like #9 Striking Speed. I just personally didn’t see the potential for turf with this horse. Linda Rice does excellent work with second-time starters generally, but she rarely wins with them in turf routes (1 for 18 over the past five years). That said, I respect Mike’s eye for these things and wouldn’t be strongly against this horse if he’s a square price.

The one horse Mike didn’t mention who scares me a bit is #10 Souper Energizer. I know he looks a little slow compared to some others, but he’s a horse who was pretty green early on in his career. It seemed like he was putting things together last time, and he’s since been gelded, so I don’t want to overlook him as one that could potentially improve in a race where others are already exposed.

Mike’s Plays (Race 1):

Win #9

Exacta box: 9 with 5, 7, 10, 11

Pick 5: 9 with 1, 2, 3 with 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3 with 2, 6, 7 ($27)

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5, 7, 11 with 1 with 6, 7, with 1, 2, 3 with 2, 6, 7 ($45)

Race 2: Woody Stephens (G1)

Mike’s Analysis:

The silver lining to be found in this running of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens is that the five colts entered are all talented and that a case can be made for any of them to win. Still, only getting five for this race, which in the past could always be counted on to pull a big, competitive field is a major disappointment.

Let's begin with the two Steve Asmussen-trained runners on the outside, as they both have something to recommend. I can be drawn to turnbacks like #5 Shoplifted in races like this, and he can clearly win the Woody Stephens as he sprints for the first time since finishing a no-threat second in the Hopeful last summer, but I do wonder how good this horse actually is. He ran fine last time while moving into a fast pace and getting a look at the leader in the stretch, only to fail to finish going a distance that is longer than he prefers. I thought long and hard about him, and ultimately passed, but he may be the right kind of price in this race.

His stablemate, #4 Echo Town, has run well in every one of his five starts to date and exits a game win over #2 Meru (whom I actually prefer this time) while holding pressure on the lead for much of that race. This will be his first start over seven furlongs, but he is fine from just off the pace and may have another forward move in him.

I'm comfortable calling #3 Mischevious Alex the horse to beat in this race, even while realizing that this is probably the best field he has faced to date. He is fast, but is handy enough to sit off another horse if required, and he has been dominant in all three starts since adding blinkers late last year. The distance is no issue for him, and he is drawn outside the horse that I believe is the speed of the race. There is a troublesome gap in his works between April 1 and May 20.

As mentioned above, I think #2 Meru can turn the tables on the Echo Town this time. He looked good winning his first two starts as a 2-year-old – and earned a 95 Beyer in the process – before breaking slowly and getting a wide trip to no avail in the Nashua behind a blowout winner. He backed off of Echo Town early in that race last month, then appeared to get intimidated while between horses in the stretch, which cost him some momentum, but he did come with a game late run when clear.

My top pick in the race is #1 No Parole, and I'm taking him with the idea that Luis Saez is going to send this horse from the rail. He has only been tested once in his career, and he did not pass that exam when beaten to the lead and failing to land a blow in the Rebel behind Nadal. That race was going long over a sloppy track, and I am more than willing to give him a pass. I realize that he was facing nothing in his first three starts, but he toyed with those horses while winning as he pleased, and I liked the way he fired to the lead versus a better field en route to a sharp win last time.

David’s Response:

I agree with Mike that, for a five-horse field, this is a fascinating race. Yet our opinions on the individual contenders diverge a bit.

I found it difficult to dismiss anyone in this field, though the one horse that I was willing to take a stand against is actually Mike’s top pick, #1 No Parole. I don’t disagree that he was visually impressive yet again last time, but I didn’t think he was beating a particularly strong field at Oaklawn, and I’m still waiting for this horse to get seriously tested in a sprint. In my opinion, he has to get faster to beat these, and I’m not so confident that he’ll be able to see out the seven furlongs with expected pace pressure from Mischevious Alex and perhaps even Echo Town.

#4 Echo Town is the most likely winner. I guess you have to be a little concerned about him getting the extra furlong, but he seems pretty tractable, so I wouldn’t be inclined to put it past him. He’s just the fastest horse in this field based on speed figures and he nearly defeated Long Weekend, who may be the best 3-year-old sprinter in the country, in a very fast edition of the Bachelor. I don’t love the prospect of taking a short price on anyone in this competitive field, but I have a ton of respect for this colt.

I agree with Mike that #2 Meru should have every right to turn the tables on Echo Town after a promising return at Churchill, especially as both are stretching out. We’ll see what price he is in relation to Echo Town, but he’s a major player in my book.

It sounds like Mike has been a little more impressed by #3 Mischevious Alex than I have, though I acknowledge it would be unwise to dismiss a horse who has accomplished what he has over this seven-furlong distance.

At the end of the day, I just can’t resist a turnback like #5 Shoplifted. It’s true that we really don’t know if he’s good enough to beat a group like this, but I’m confident that he’s going to run better than he has in his recent two-turn races. I could never figure out why they decided to immediately target routes with this runner dating back to last fall because he always struck me as more of a late-running sprint type. He displayed an electric turn of foot when he won his debut going 5 1/2 furlongs last summer at Saratoga, and he’s arguably progressed since then despite repeatedly running in races that don’t suit him. As the one true closer in this field, he needs them to battle a bit up front, but I think that’s a distinct possibility given the way the post positions worked out. He’s my top pick.

Mike’s Plays (Race 2):

Win #1

Pick 3: 1, 2, 3 with 6, 7 with 2

Pick 4: 1, 2 with 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3 with 2, 6, 7

Race 4: Pennine Ridge (G2)

David’s Analysis:

#1 Decorated Invader has developed into one of the most promising 3-year-old turf horses in the country and will be a deserving favorite. He took the sort of step forward that you want to see out of a horse making his sophomore debut when he won the Cutler Bay last time out, earning a career-best 88 Beyer. Yet it must be noted that he got a great pace setup that day, as they blazed along on the front end and he looped the field with a sustained rally from far back. A repeat of that effort still makes him tough here, but there doesn’t appear to be nearly as much early zip signed on this time.

I believe the favorite could be vulnerable to fellow Gulfstream shipper #3 Proven Strategies. Like Decorated Invader, this runner also contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. While he didn’t run nearly as well as his main rival that day, he’s laid down plenty of evidence since that suggests he’s reached a new level as a 3-year-old. It’s true that the pace was in his favor on April 5, but I loved the way he dominated that group without ever being asked. He had to endure a bit more early pressure last time in the English Channel and still hung in gamely until the last sixteenth, only losing to the very promising Gufo. Based on speed figures alone, he’s a real rival for Decorated Invader. Furthermore, I think the one-turn configuration of this race will suit him, and he figures to get a significant head start on the favorite given their divergent running styles.

Mike’s Response:

David's thoughts on the favorite and on his pick for the (mild) upset pretty much mirror the way I look at those two horses. Perhaps Decorated Invader will just turn out to be too much for this field, but he is one of the clear-cut favorites on the card that I am willing to try to beat. I will only add that I have been taken by the improvement shown by #2 Venezuelan Hug since he was claimed by Danny Gargan. The fact that he is a closer in the same vein as Decorated Invader may work against him, but the difference in price between them makes up for that, and he is going to figure prominently in my play.

David’s Plays (Race 4):

I’d bet #3 Proven Strategies to win at odds around 5-2 or better, assuming no scratches. Mike made a good point about the improved #2 Venezuelan Hug, so he’s one that I would definitely use in exotics.

Win: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2

Trifecta: 3 with 1 with ALL

Pick 3: 1,3 with 7,8 with 2,3,4,5

Pick 3: 3 with 1,2,6 with 2,3

Race 6: The Wonder Again (G3)

Mike’s Analysis:

Like the Woody Stephens earlier on the card, the Grade 3 Wonder Again, run at a mile for the first time this year, has pulled a field of only five. Also like that earlier race, all five entered here can win.

That being the case, trips are likely to be very important in this race, which is projected to be run at a moderate early pace.

The returning #2 Sweet Melania is favored on the morning line, and she does possess the handy kind of speed that should have her in position throughout this race. She really improved when switched to turf last year and, after burying a modest field in the Grade 2 Jessamine, she ran well to be third at the Breeders' Cup, despite being no match late in that race. Her trainer is excellent off of long layoffs, and this filly has to be respected.

While I have no particular knocks on either #1 Speaktomeofsummer or #5 Selflessly (except maybe price with this runner), I looked to #4 Antoinette and #3 Highland Glory as alternatives to the favorite. Highland Glory was given a perfect trip and ride to win her turf debut back in January, but she also always traveled in that race and really ran when clear in the stretch. She did well to just get up over an underrated Cheermeister to the win the Sanibel Island two starts back and got very unlucky last time with a tough trip doing her in.

Antoinette has recently been running well on the main track, but I actually prefer her on this surface and she is the one I will try to make money with in this race. She raced very greenly in her debut on turf as a 2-year-old and then appeared to really benefit from that experience while coming right back to win her maiden over a solid field in her next start. She has tactical speed and may be ready to take the necessary step forward here as she switches back to grass.

David’s Response:

I don’t have a whole lot to add to what Mike said about the favorites. #2 Sweet Melania’s expected pace advantage is going to make her very dangerous, and she may just be the best of this group anyway. Though, I think we haven’t yet seen the best of #3 Highland Glory, and I’m looking for her to take another step forward here. I concur with Mike that she was much the best in that Sanibel Island two back, and then last time Luis Saez was just a little unlucky as he was never able to get into a comfortable rhythm with her, constantly having to stop and start and alter course. She’s my selection in here.

I can’t really argue with Mike’s take on his top pick of #4 Antoinette. I gave her a very long look in this race, trying to reach the same conclusion, but I ultimately couldn’t quite get there. She probably is a little better on turf, and she likely has improved since we last saw her on that surface. I’m just not certain that she’s quite at this level, but I won’t be shocked if she runs well here.

Mike’s Plays (Race 6):

Win #4

Exacta: 4 over 3, smaller reverse

Pick 3: 3, 4 with 3, 8 with 1

Pick 5: 3,4 with 3, 8, 12 with 1 with 1, 2, 4, 5 with 3, 8 ($24)

Pick 5: ALL (5) with 3, 8 with 1 with 2, 5 with 3, 8 ($20 )

Race 7: Allowance N1X

David’s Analysis:

This is a mixed-age event, but the majority of the serious contenders are 3-year-olds. A year ago, when all of these runners were juveniles, there is no doubt that #8 My Sassy Sarah would have been the boss of this group. Her maiden victory last September was an excellent effort, and her connections had every right to take a shot in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo off such a performance. Things didn’t quite work out in that open-company stakes, but it’s not as if she disgraced herself. She didn’t get the most comfortable trip and actually reached contention in upper stretch before flattening out like a horse with stamina limitations. That’s no problem today, as she’s cutting back to her preferred six-furlong distance. The only major question is whether she’s matured since last year, as we often see the hierarchy among runners like this get shuffled around as horses develop from ages 2 to 3.

I respect the favorite, but I want to take a shot with #3 Single Verse at what figures to be a better price. This filly primarily raced on dirt last year, but I’m fairly confident that she’s a better turf horse. Her dam side pedigree would certainly corroborate that opinion, as her dam and siblings were all superior grass horses. Single Verse’s lone turf performance at Saratoga was a strong one, as she chased a fast pace, made the first move to take over in midstretch, and just got nailed in the late stages. Furthermore, you can make the argument that she actually improved following that start, despite racing on the wrong surface. She returns for new trainer Rob Atras and should be able to issue a challenge to the favorite with routine improvement as a 3-year-old.

Mike’s Response:

Like David, I looked at My Sassy Sarah as the horse to beat in this race based on her 2-year-old form, but as the likely favorite following a layoff I wanted some others on my tickets. Included among them is Single Verse, whom I agree ran very well in her lone turf start and is eligible to really improve while getting back to the grass. Having now seen Sunday's past performances, my enthusiasm for using Noble Jewel has waned, as she is entered for a $40K tag on that card. I suppose #12 Speightstown Gal moves up as she gets class relief for a hot trainer, though she has much to prove at this stage of the game.

David’s Plays (Race 7):

Perhaps the late announcement of the trainer switch to Rob Atras will drive down the price on #3 Single Verse a bit, but I still expect her to be at playable odds in this race. Mike are on the same page about #8 My Sassy Sarah being a must-use in all slots. I also had originally liked #6 Noble Jewel a bit, but it appears that she is going to scratch for a race on Sunday.

Win: 3

Exacta Box: 3,8

Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 4,5,10,11,12

Trifecta: 3,8 with 4,5,10,11,12 with 3,8

Race 8: Acorn (G1)

David’s Analysis:

#1 Gamine just looks too fast for her rivals here. Whether you’re looking at the Beyer (98) or TimeformUS Speed Figure (118) for her last race, she just holds a massive edge over this field. She got the two-turn 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn last time, but I actually think this one-turn mile configuration at Belmont will suit her better. Some may be deterred by the rail draw, but she’s obviously quick enough to get in front of these early, and I would expect John Velazquez to try and take them gate to wire. I know Bob Baffert has started a couple of duds at this current Belmont meet, but over the past five years he’s a remarkable 13 for 24 (54%, $4.16 ROI) in Grade 1 dirt races at NYRA, and 10 for 17 in dirt routes within that sample. I’m not trying to beat her.

As for the others, the only real opinion I have is that I’m somewhat against #4 Casual. She was professional and fast in her debut back in April, but I didn’t perceive any kind of forward progression second time out at Churchill Downs. The track appeared to be playing to inside speed on that card, so she took advantage of those circumstances – along with a slow pace – and still had to dig deep for that victory against inferior foes. I’d rather upgrade #2 Lucrezia and #7 Perfect Alibi at better prices when looking to round out potential exotics plays.

Mike’s Response:

I have nothing to add to this analysis as I have little interest in putting serious money in against Gamine. I did view Casual as the main threat, but if I was interested in playing exactas in this race I would just use #3 Water White underneath at a big price and hope she improves from 2 to 3.

David’s Plays (Race 8):

This isn’t really a spot for intra-race wagers, as I’m not trying to beat the heavy favorite #1 Gamine. I’ll just go for an exacta and trifecta, trying to beat likely second choice #4 Casual out of the second slot, also upgrading Mike’s recommendation of #3 Water White.

Exacta: 1 with 2,3,7

Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,4,7

Pick 5: 1 with 2,3,4,5 with 3,8 with 2,4,9 with ,2,3,4,5,6,7 ($72)

Pick 5: 1 with 2,4,5 with 3,8 with 1,5,6 with 2,3,5,7 ($36)

Pick 5: 1 with 5 with 1,2,9,10 with 2,4,9 with 2,3,5,7 ($24)

Race 9: The Jaipur (G1)

Mike’s Analysis:

A field of seven older horses, and one mare, have entered the $250K Jaipur looking for a rare Grade 1 prize available to runners in this turf-sprint division. Set for six furlongs over the inner turf, the Jaipur does not appear to have a ton of pace signed on, which could be an advantage for the hard-hitting 9-year-old #4 Pure Sensation. The Jaipur winner in 2016 (when it was a Grade 3), he hasn't won a race in New York since taking the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational later that year. He can still run, and his speed makes him dangerous, but he may be better suited to shorter sprints at this point.

Like him or not, #6 Hidden Scroll has to be reckoned with before moving on as he has speed and has shown flashes of real brilliance at times. Personally, I'm not sure sprinting on the turf is going to be his game, even if he does ultimately handle the surface, and he always takes money.

Of the longer prices on the morning line, I thought #1 Kanthaka might be most interesting as he was cut out to be a nice horse from the start and had no pace in front of him when making his turf debut in his most recent start, which was nearly 400 days ago. He has that long layoff to overcome in his first start for Graham Motion but can threaten if ready.

I didn't take lightly the chances of the mare in this race. #2 Oleksandra is 2 for 2 over the course and distance in her career, and she defeated colts in one of those races. She will need some pace to set up her late run, but jockey Joel Rosario fits her very well and she has fired every time for him.

To me, #5 Stubbins may just be the right horse in this race. He is more tactical than the other two horses I want to use, and he has shown up every time under these conditions. He never had a chance in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint two starts back but was finishing fast when finally clear way too late, and he also had some trouble last time off the layoff. He is not meeting the top horses in the division in this year's Jaipur and just makes a lot of sense for a horse who may not go favored.

David’s Response:

As one of the last remaining members of the Hidden Scroll Fan Club, it pains me to report that I don’t like him at all in this race. I was one of those who had been holding out hope that he’d turn out to be a turf horse. Yet, I watched a video of his most recent turf workout and I’ve totally abandoned that opinion. That loping stride of his didn’t translate as well to the grass as I had hoped, and he even appeared to bobble a few times through the stretch as he seemed to struggle with the footing. I just don’t think he possesses the explosive speed or turn of foot to win going this short anyway.

Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, Mike and I are pretty much on the same page here, especially with regard to our mutual top pick of #5 Stubbins. Everything Mike said about his trips rings true to me, and I just have more confidence that he’ll be able to translate his form to six furlongs, whereas that’s a bigger question for a few of his main rivals.

#4 Pure Sensation, in particular seems like more of a five-furlong specialist, though I don’t want to be too dismissive of him here. I actually considered making him my top pick anyway, because I just think this race is going to play to his strengths from a race-flow standpoint. Aside from Hidden Scroll, there just isn’t any speed to go with this horse, and I’m not really certain that even that one can apply pressure early. It’s tempting to argue that he’s lost a step, but he was actually in career form last year and arguably could have won the Breeders’ Cup if he had broken cleanly. The final half-furlong of this Jaipur may be a stretch for him, but I wouldn’t put a gate-to-wire theft past this 9-year-old.

I’m a big fan of the mare #2 Oleksandra and believe she’s talented enough to beat a group of top male sprinters. However, I am very concerned about the pace for her because she really needs to move a bit upfront if she’s going to pass them all in the lane.

Mike’s Plays (Race 9):

Win #5

Exacta box: 5 with 2, 4

Double: 5 with 3

Pick 4: 2, 5 with 3, 8 with 5, 6, 7, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 ($40)

Pick 4: 5 with 3, 8 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 ($36 )

Race 10: Belmont Stakes (G1)

David’s Analysis:

Here’s my take on #8 Tiz the Law: He’s the most likely winner. However, most racing fans are going just a little overboard in prematurely declaring him the undisputed leader of this division. Is he the fastest and most accomplished runner in this field? A resounding yes, and yes. However, it’s not like he was beating stellar fields in either of his 2020 victories, and he couldn’t have worked out a better trip when taking the Florida Derby last time. He’s a popular runner who’s easy to root for, but I believe he’s going to be slightly overbet if he goes off as the expected heavy favorite. From a multi-race standpoint, I believe you have to lean on him pretty heavily just to stay alive in the sequence. Yet I can’t endorse strongly supporting him based on his expected win odds.

So who are the viable alternatives? #1 Tap It to Win displayed the kind of brilliance that he had only hinted at last summer at Saratoga when impressively winning an allowance race just 16 days ago. Yet he now has to stretch out further while potentially enduring added pace pressure from a runner like Fore Left. He’s arguably the most naturally gifted horse in this field outside of Tiz the Law, but I don’t fully trust him to repeat that last performance under different circumstances.

#2 Sole Volante will come running late, as he usually does, but he’s fairly exposed at this point, so I feel that he’s more likely to pick up a minor award than cause a major upset.

The other short prices don’t do a great deal for me, though I suppose #9 Dr Post still has some room for improvement.

I like #3 Max Player. I’m not entirely sure if he’s good enough to beat Tiz the Law, but he figures to be an enticing price, and he’s the one horse who still has palpable upside in a race where some improvement will be required to upset the favorite. He beat a weaker field in the Withers, but he won in a manner suggesting that we hadn’t yet seen the best of him. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding him as he returns from this lengthy layoff. Yet I know that Linda Rice isn’t one to take a shot in a major stakes unless she has a real contender, and it appears that this horse has vastly improved in his training during the time away. If the pace materializes as the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates, I think Max Player has a shot to get a big piece of this – and perhaps even win.

Mike’s Response:

My take on the likely favorite and horse to beat, Tiz the Law, is very similar to David's. I know he is good and will give him the respect he deserves in this spot, but I have never viewed him in quite the same light that it seems many others do. None of this may matter when all is said and done as this race has continued shedding top contenders over the past month or so, leaving him as a clear-cut favorite, but he is just not a horse I am that afraid of at a short price.

I landed on the same horse in Max Player and am happy to take a shot with him on top, even while realizing that he is going to have to really improve to win here. I guess I consider Sole Volante to be more of a threat than David does, but from a wagering perspective this race is really all about Max Player and Tiz the Law for me.

David’s Plays (Race 10):

With #3 Max Player, it’s really all about the price. I don’t know if we’re going to get that 15-1 morning line I had hoped for, but he figures to be double-digit odds in this spot, and that’s good enough for me.

Win/Place: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8

Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,2,4,5,9,10

Trifecta: 3,8 with 1,2,9,10 with 3,8

Double: 3,8 with 2

Race 11: OC $80k/Alw

Mike’s Analysis:

This is a deep field, and there are cases to be made for several different horses in here, but let's first deal with morning-line favorite #9 Digital Age. I'm not way against this horse as he makes his 4-year-old debut, but he does seem likely to be overbet in what shapes up to be a very tough race. He didn't relish the longer distances required of the top 3-year-old turf horses last summer, but he ran better than it looks in each of his last two starts while having much work against him in those races. I'll look to mostly use him underneath as the favorite.

The main use against him is #5 Argonne. This 5-year-old has always had potential, and he was getting good early last year while winning three in a row over progressively longer distances. He was full of run through the stretch when winning that 11-furlong race last June after an easy trip, but he doesn't need the lead to be effective and seems to be very well-suited to this distance on the inner turf, over which trips can be very important. He is going to be the right kind of price to take a shot with in this spot.

#6 Pillar Mountain may want longer, but he fits in this field with his good race. He really needs the right trip to be effective, however, which makes him tough to take at any short price.

I'm not sure #7 Monarchs Glen is actually good enough at this point, but he used to be, and he got a ridiculous ride the only time he ran in New York last year. That race was won by by a horse that I don't care for, and Monarchs Glen was beaten by that same horse last time, but he may finally be a price, and I want to use him somewhere if he is.

David’s Response:

It’s a busy week, so I’ll forgive Mike for failing to notice that I made #3 Largent the morning-line favorite, not #9 Digital Age. Though, in all honesty, that decision was a toss-up for me. I figured the public might give the nod to Largent, considering his popularity at the windows down in Florida and the fact that he possesses superior tactical speed in a race where early position could prove to be paramount.

From a handicapping standpoint, I feel that Largent has benefited from some pretty soft trips in his recent races, so I prefer Digital Age. He’s proven his class against tougher company and was just a little unlucky in the second half of 2019, encountering one paceless race after another, often going distances that are a bit too far for him. He does have to step up his game as a 4-year-old, and he could be at the mercy of the pace once again, but he’s arguably the horse to beat.

Though, I do agree with Mike that this race is a little more competitive than it might initially appear. I’m not as big of a fan of #5 Argonne, though I can see where Mike is going with that opinion.

My top pick is #2 Breaking the Rules. I acknowledge that this horse’s form totally fell apart last spring and the layoff is a major concern. Yet let’s not forget how good he appeared to be getting at the end of 2018. In retrospect, I think you can make some excuses for his poor efforts. He obviously didn’t appreciate so much cut in the ground in the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic (that course was yielding, not good) and perhaps he’s just not a miler, as he’s been a little one-paced at the end of all of his races going that short. I think 1 1/8 miles is a much better distance for him. He has the tactical speed to get the right kind of trip, and this inside post position is ideal going this tricky distance on the inner course. I don’t totally trust him, but I think this could be the right time to take a shot with him.

I also would throw in #4 Red Right Hand as a longshot in exotics. As I said above, speed is dangerous going this nine-furlong distance on the inner, and this horse should sit a great trip either in front or stalking Largent. Perhaps he isn’t good enough or won’t be ready off the layoff, but don’t underestimate how much he improved at the end of last season. He’ll be somewhere on my tickets.

Mike’s Plays (Race 11):

Win #5

Exacta key box: 5 with 2, 4, 6, 7, 9

Double: 5 with 2, 3

Smaller Double: 5 with 5, 7

Race 12: Allowance N1X

David’s Analysis:

Among those with proven turf-sprint form, #2 Crack Shot and #7 Qian B C come into this race with the strongest 2019 performances. Yet with one being a one-dimensional front-runner and the other a deep closer, trips will be of utmost importance for each of them. Crack Shot lost all chance at the start last time, so you can just draw a line through that performance. Prior to that, he had run exceptionally well, despite losing as the favorite after chasing a fast pace on Sept. 18. He’ll be tough to catch if he gets loose up front, but that’s not a guarantee given the presence of a few speedy rivals. Qian B C seems more trustworthy, but he’s not exactly a winning type. He finally won his maiden after many tries two back, but he went right back to his hanging ways in his first start against winners in October. Six furlongs seems like a better distance for him than seven, so he figures to be at least be around at the finish, but I can’t quite endorse him as my top pick.

There are a few viable first-time turfers in this lineup. The one that I’ve been waiting to see on the turf since the winter at Aqueduct is #5 Impetuous. I know that probably sounds a little counterintuitive, since he doesn’t have any sort of conventional turf pedigree, especially on the female side of his family. Yet, when I watch this horse’s dirt races, he just looks and moves like a turf horse. His sire Fast Anna has had limited turf starters so far in his stallion career, but among his progeny is the talented turf sprinter Fast Scene. Impetuous reminds me a lot of that runner, and it seems meaningful to me that the Mark Casse barn is moving him over to turf as soon as possible upon the return of racing to New York. Also take note that he ran his best dirt race over a sealed track, and that can sometimes be an indicator of a horse who isn’t quite happy with a conventional dirt surface. At what figures to be a generous price, I’m willing to take a shot.

Mike’s Response:

This was an intriguing read for me because I have been a fan of Impetuous from the start of his career and can't say that I saw the same turf potential in him that David has pointed to. I didn't need a lot of encouragement to throw him in, which I am definitely doing now. In addition to the logical horses with form on this surface, I am using #3 Double Shot, making his turf debut following three promising runs on dirt for David Donk.

David’s Plays (Race 12):

In a race where I didn’t have too many clever ideas outside of my top pick of #5 Impetuous, I’m happy to throw in Mike’s suggestion of #3 Double Shot. Both should be square prices in this wide-open finale.

Win/Place: 5

Exacta Key Box: 3,5 with 2,3,4,5,7