Belmont Stakes 2021 post-race analysis
A compromised start and wide trip sent ESSENTIAL QUALITY to his first defeat in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago, but he benefitted from a gorgeous trip and advantageous pace Saturday to re-establish his position as the best 3-year-old male in the land by taking the Belmont Stakes over a stubborn HOT ROD CHARLIE, who ran too good to lose the way the race unfolded.
A few points before delving into the race itself:
-- Both Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie ran in the Derby and then came into the Belmont after skipping the Preakness, a strategy that has resulted in 10 wins since 2000, not counting Rags to Riches, who won the Belmont after winning the Kentucky Oaks. So, 11 of the past 21 Belmonts run at 1 1/2 miles have been won by a horse who last raced Derby weekend.
-- Also, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie were one-two in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile seven months ago, so it is encouraging to see the form of that race hold up this much later, and for these two to have continued to reign at or near the top of their brethren.
-- And a hearty salute to Tapit, the sire of Essential Quality, who has now sired four of the last seven winners of this race when run at 1 1/2 miles. Incredible.
The pace of this race was brutally fast for the distance, with an opening quarter in 22.78 seconds and half in 46.49 seconds, fractions you’d expect for a mile race, not one a half-mile longer. Two of the horses near that pace, ROCK YOUR WORLD and FRANCE GO de INA, were well back at race’s end, underscoring the quality of Hot Rod Charlie’s effort.
Essential Quality benefitted from the pace, but also from a savvy ride from Luis Saez, most notably, to me, something he did going into the first turn. Essential Quality, in post 2, broke inside of ROMBAUER and might have been forced to race inside that rival around the turn had Saez not seized on the opportunity to get out, owing to the space afforded him by KNOWN AGENDA being well off the rail. At that point, a quarter-mile into the race, Essential Quality had secured an advantageous position, in fifth while outside Rombauer, with a solid pace unfolding in front of him, and a clear path to the leaders.
Saez sat in that spot for much of the backstretch, then Essential Quality closed on the leaders heading into the far turn. He was initially in the four path, but eventually got to the three path after France Go de Ina backed out. He had to dig down deep to turn back an incredibly game Hot Rod Charlie, but he got the best of his rival in deep stretch and was coming away at the end.
Hot Rod Charlie was sent aggressively away from the gate to take the track, with France Go de Ina alongside initially along with Rock Your World. After France Go de Ina eased out of that melee around the first turn, Hot Rod Charlie had to contend with Rock Your World, who applied serious pressure the first mile. Hot Rod Charlie put away Rock Your World, and it would have been understandable for him to capitulate in upper stretch, but he fought valiantly before having to settle for second. He finished more than 11 lengths in front of third-place Rombauer, and his pace rivals were even farther back. It might have been the best second-place finish in a major race at storied Belmont Park since Seattle Slew’s brutal loss to Exceller in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Rombauer, who was third, was on his toes before the race, not as antsy as before the Preakness, but still a bit stirred up. He saved ground around the first turn while inside of Essential Quality, continued to hug the rail for much of the far turn before going around a tiring Rock Your World, but saw the top two sail away from him through the lane.
Known Agenda, who was fourth, was three paths wide around the first turn, then made a bit of a menacing move early on the far turn while drafting behind Essential Quality, but his rally was brief, and he finished evenly while unable to get past Rombauer.
BOURBONIC, who was fifth, saved ground throughout, but just isn’t this good. He continued a poor record for horses exiting the Wood Memorial, which he won.
Rock Your World, who was sixth, broke a half-step slowly, then quickly got into gear and moved outside of both Hot Rod Charlie and France Go de Ina to press the pace, initially in the three path. He was lapped on Hot Rod Charlie for much of the backstretch and into the far turn, but he began to weaken midway on that turn and retreated. The compare and contrast of his effort vs. Hot Rod Charlie is stark. Perhaps he needs to go back to turf, as his Santa Anita Derby win was in fact earned over a track that flattered his style, and he got loose that day.
OVERTOOK, who was seventh, balked before loading into the gate, was four paths wide into the first turn, but was always well back while overmatched.
France Go de Ina, last in the field of eight, went with Hot Rod Charlie early, eased out of the pace scrum midway on the first turn and sat third, re-engaged heading to the far turn from the three path, but readily backed up beginning midway on that turn. It was sporting for his connections to send him here for the Preakness and Belmont, but he’s well below the quality of this group.