Belmont Stakes 2021: Mike Welsch's picks and analysis
One can make a case the final outcome of the Kentucky Derby, in part, came down to trips with many of the leading candidates having their chances compromised by unlucky runs of varying degrees. Many of those horses will meet again Saturday in the Belmont Stakes. Primary among that group is KNOWN AGENDA, who was completely eliminated from contention after the opening furlong of the Derby when put in tight quarters along the rail and forced to steady back to near the rear of the field in a race ultimately dominated by horses racing on or close to the lead. With that in mind, Known Agenda surely deserves a second chance, especially considering his body of work prior to the Derby and the way he has trained in the five weeks since. His final Belmont drill was perhaps his best yet, accomplished in company with the older graded stakes winner Dr Post. Trainer Todd Pletcher has taken this route to the Belmont winner’s circle twice before with unplaced Derby runners Tapwrit and Palace Malice.
:: Bet the Belmont Stakes on DRF Bets! Join today with code DOUBLE and get a $250 Bonus.
HOT ROD CHARLIE and ESSENTIAL QUALITY have proven to be a pretty even match in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and again in the Derby, after which both camps could make a solid case they might have come out on top with cleaner trips. Both horses continue to move forward on a regular basis from a figures standpoint, and give little reason not to expect another top performance when squaring off in the rubber match. The trip and crucial question of the added distance likely will be key to which one comes out on top in Round 3 of their personal battle.
ROMBAUER ran far and away the race of his life in the Preakness when ultimately dominating what was arguably a softer group than he’ll face coming back on relatively short rest in the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown. He gives the appearance of having come out of that effort in good order, but will likely need to produce a similar, if not even better, effort to duplicate the result with this bunch.
Rock Your World had arguably the worst luck of them all on Derby Day and can surely be given a mulligan for that effort. Expect to see him near if not on the lead here, and he is obviously a key player if able to shake loose, relax on the lead, and carry that speed 12 furlongs the way he did 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby.