Belmont Stakes 2021: Mike Beer's picks and analysis
HOT ROD CHARLIE was a big surprise in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when nearly pulling off a 94-1 upset, and he arguably ran as well as eventual winner ESSENTIAL QUALITY in that race while making the first move into a wicked pace. He has since proven that effort was no fluke with a convincing win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, followed by a close third in the Kentucky Derby – where he finished just ahead of Essential Quality. He has the tactical speed to get any kind of trip as he retains his Derby rider, and he is likely to be no lower than third choice in the Belmont Stakes.
Essential Quality suffered the first defeat of his career as the favorite in the Derby, but he also took the worst of it among the top four finishers in that race while stuck wide throughout after a bump at the start. Have to respect that he can run his race from anywhere as he looks for some redemption in this spot, but his margin for error is slim and he will likely go favored once again.
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ROMBAUER was a nonwinner on dirt heading into the Preakness three weeks ago, and he clearly took a significant step forward to win that race easily with a field-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He was no match for Essential Quality in the Blue Grass back in April, though he did show improved tactical speed in that race, which he then carried forward to the Preakness. He faces a much stronger field here with something still to prove, but he may be this good.
KNOWN AGENDA did not have the speed to obtain early position from the rail in Kentucky, and never landed a blow in that race after being outrun. Have always thought he would appreciate more distance, but he is going to need to run the best race of his career to contend Saturday.