Belmont Stakes 2021: Dan Illman's picks and analysis
Other than his undefeated record, ESSENTIAL QUALITY lost little when beaten only a length in the Kentucky Derby. He took a good bump leaving the gate, and that might have cost him a bit of early position. After that, he raced wide around both turns and was still punching on in the stretch. One of his best assets is his tactical speed, and he shouldn’t be too far off the leaders when the real racing begins. Fresh after skipping the Preakness, he’s worked swiftly coming into this race.
ROMBAUER might have been pace compromised when beaten by the top pick in the Blue Grass two starts back, then ran very, very well when upsetting the field in the Preakness. A one-run closer as a 2-year-old, he’s shown improved positional speed in his last two starts and might be the strongest late-kicker in the Belmont field. It appears he’s getting better and better, and he’ll be charging in the final furlongs.
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HOT ROD CHARLIE is a beacon of consistency and is another with the speed to find a comfortable spot close to the pace. Don’t like how he hopped back to his left lead in the shadow of the wire in his last two races, but his Beyer Speed Figures speak for themselves. He’s one of the fastest horses in the race and should offer a hint of value on the tote.
KNOWN AGENDA acts like the kind of colt that will appreciate the extra distance. Not sure he got the trip he wanted in the Derby falling far back after breaking from the inside post. Todd Pletcher-trained horses run very well fresh, and Known Agenda has only started once since winning the Florida Derby.
Rock Your World could very well be the one to catch as he ran quick every step in grabbing the Santa Anita Derby two starts back. Had no shot after a horrible start in the Kentucky Derby and might be “dirtied up” coming into this Belmont.