Belmont Stakes 2011 handicapping chat

DRF handicappers Dan Illman, Marcus Hersh, and Mike Beer discussed the Belmont Stakes live from 5 to 6 p.m. Eastern. Selected highlights from the chat:

BeerAtDRF: I can use Brilliant Speed only because he didn't have the best closer's trip in the Derby. I would want over 20/1 odds though.

DRF_DanIllman: I can't give you a good reason to bet Brilliant Speed.

DRF_DanIllman: I'm chalking out. Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Nehro

BeerAtDRF: Mucho at least had a bit of a trip at Pimlico -- still don't believe he's good enough though.

BeerAtDRF: Shack may actually wind up the best price of the major contenders. I'm definitely using Shackleford

DRF_DanIllman: I'm worried about Shackleford's staying power. He switched leads twice in the last 200 yards of the Preakness.

MarcusHersh: Top 4 1. Animal Kingdom 2. Nehro. 3. Master of Hounds 4. Santiva.

BeerAtDRF: Santiva is at least mildly interesting if you're taking a shot. Still wonder how good he is and if he can improve going.

BeerAtDRF: Stay Thirsty has no chance.

DRF_DanIllman: I don't see Stay Thirsty and I'm playing against Mucho Macho Man.

BeerAtDRF: I've fallen into the Nehro trap. He just seems really likely to run his race.

MarcusHersh: I would be shocked to see Shack in top 3 in Belmont.

MarcusHersh: Monzon may have "stamina," but he's probably not a good enough horse.

MarcusHersh: New shooters -- umm, none of the above? Alternation would've been the interesting one.

DRF_DanIllman: Mark, of the horses that didn't contest the Preaknesss, I'd use Santiva.

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- I think Much Macho Man has some quality. I also think he's been pretty heavily raced. Losing weight? Tailing off?

MarcusHersh: Animal Kingdom is nowhere near the kind of stone closer Zen was.

BeerAtDRF: Maybe Marcus, but I don't necessarily believe in 'over-raced'. Where is Macho Man's good race?

MarcusHersh: Shack will be in in the front early barring a stumble.

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- Mucho looked good winning Risen Star. Watching him train was all favorable. He has talent.

BeerAtDRF: Ruler on Ice did virtually no running at Sunland. Astroloy was after a brutal pace that day.

MarcusHersh: Nehro needs to stop passing the lead horse AFTER the finish.

DRF_DanIllman: Tom Premier, worried about Ruler On Ice's condition. He missed Preakness due to poor blood work.

DRF_DanIllman: Think Mucho Macho Man is over the top after several tough races.

DRF_DanIllman: Master of Hounds has done a great amount of shipping. He likes it.

BeerAtDRF: How do you know Hounds likes it Illman. Because he never wins?

MarcusHersh: Master of Hounds shipped from Ireland to Dubai and back again in March. Then from IRE to KY and back. Now IRE - NY.

DRF_DanIllman: Beer, stop messing with me. He ran well in Dubai, he ran well in the Derby.

MarcusHersh: I was told Hounds looked good his first day at track. Good sign. Many O'brien travelers do not.

MarcusHersh: Three horses best suited to 12 furlongs: Master of Hounds, Santiva, Animal Kingdom.

DRF_DanIllman: Not sure Master of Hounds will love 12 furlongs. Female family full of sprinters.

BeerAtDRF: Ernie, i think Brilliant Speed has a shot and picked him second, think he'll be an underlay though

BeerAtDRF: Nehro may hang, but he was against the flow of Derby and is very likely to fire. Is he good enough?

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- how was Nehro against the flow?

DRF_DanIllman: Marcus, I'll fault Right One's poor lead change as well.

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer - Nehro wasn't that close till he made an early move and he made it into slow pace. I can't excuse him there.

BeerAtDRF: i think Shak is a major player and he will be on all of my tickets. why is Animal Kingdom so much better than him? v

MarcusHersh: AK is so much better than SHack cuz of pedigree. Shack by sprint sire out of 7furlongs mare.

DRF_DanIllman: Karen Martin...Isn't He Perfect, Stay Thirsty are pitches.

MarcusHersh: Last place finisher should be Isn't He Perfect. But that's too logical

DRF_DanIllman: Prime Cut is a solid listed stakes horse that finished third in the local prep.

MarcusHersh: Prime Cut beat touted Bind in FG allowance. So-so Lexington. So-so Peter Pan. 30-1 shot.

MarcusHersh: How about undercard stakes? Anyone?

MarcusHersh: I like Viscount Nelson & Al Khali in Manhattan.

DRF_DanIllman: Think Viscount Nelson has a shot to upset Gio Ponti in the Manhattan.

DRF_DanIllman: Think Savvy Supreme has a shot in the Acorn.

BeerAtDRF: Animal Kingdom, Nehro feel like they will take all of the Belmont money. You need an outsider to crash it

MarcusHersh: I like Wildcat Brief a touch in the True North.

DRF_DanIllman: Santiva has been handled with kid gloves. He may be fresh for this.

MarcusHersh: Dan -- but why handle Santiva with such kid gloves?

MarcusHersh: What will Animal Kingdom's price be? Steve Crist thought 3-2 or lower.

BeerAtDRF: I thought Animal Kingdom would be less than 2/1, but i'm a terrible line-maker

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- tend to agree. Animal Kingdom will be too short. I backed him at Preak even with deflated odds. Not this time.

BeerAtDRF: Temperature supposed to be much cooler in NY tomorrow, in the 70s.

MarcusHersh: The Belmont main track has been fast-playing but unbiased for days.

MarcusHersh: Santiva over AK should pay $150. But I'm not that solid with Santiva on top.

DRF_DanIllman: Interesting pedigree on Santiva. By Giant's Causeway out of half-sister to Safely Kept.

BeerAtDRF: I do not care who rides most of the time. If you pay big attention to riders so be it. I don't.

MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- Hooray on jock-importance downgrading.

MarcusHersh: Santiva's pedigree: Safely Kept champ sprinter

DRF_DanIllman: Santiva has tons of speed on the bottom of his pedigree. I wonder if that will sap his stamina going 12 furlongs.

MarcusHersh: Some jockeys ride six or seven poor horses a day and win one or less.

BeerAtDRF: Shak may wind up the best 'bet' -- He feels like an overlay right now.

DRF_DanIllman: I liked Master of Hounds in the Derby. He ran well...Think that's the best he can do.

BeerAtDRF: I'm with Prince Will I am in the Manhattan. Hoping for over 4/1 though.

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