Belmont Park handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 19

Tale of two pick fours

Empire Showcase Day, as it’s now called, looks chalky early in the card Saturday and somewhat less so late.

Most small early pick-four tickets will be alive after the first three legs, if the Joseph A. Gimma, Bertram F. Bongard, and Iroquois are won by Court Dancer, Wired Bryan, and Cluster of Stars, who all could be odds-on.

Possibilities open up in the $300,000 late pick four comprising the Ticonderoga, Hudson, Mohawk, and Empire Classic.

That is thanks in part to Discreet Marq, who opted for and won Monday’s Pebbles, which leaves six Ticonderoga contenders who have recent Beyer Speed Figure peaks in the 83-87 range.

The defending Hudson titlist, Mine Over Matter, won’t be 6-1 again this year but has little margin for error against stablemate and likely pacesetter B Shanny.

If a speed duel develops among Kharafa and King Kreesa, the Mohawk could fall prey to either the steady-going Lubash or Compliance Officer, the 2011 winner, who puts blinkers back on in his third start off a layoff.

On paper, Saratoga Snacks is the fastest horse in the Empire Classic. The most determined is Readtheprospectus, who began a winning streak 364 days ago and has simply forgotten how to lose.

Firm and fast

Long Island’s worst handicapper last week, bar none, was the weatherman, who forecast buckets of rain that never came. The continued dry weather led to unusual autumnal conditions on the turf courses, which last week were firm enough to yield times like 1:07.79 for six furlongs on the inner course and 1:20.70 for seven furlongs on the Widener.

Early speed has been particularly effective on the inner, winning 9 of 16 races from Oct. 6-14.

The main track was lightning fast and favored inside speed Oct. 13, when 4 of 5 races were won on the engine. Among the winners were Chapman, a New York-bred sprinter whose 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.89 was 0.43 seconds off the track record, and Bakken, a first-time starter who ran six furlongs in 1:08.46.

A ‘Quick’ study

The race is not always to the swift. Sometimes it’s to the quick, as in Patrick Quick, who has achieved must-follow status among price-oriented trainer handicappers.

Quick recently claimed two castoffs from high-profile barns and moved them up. Lumineuse, a five-time beaten favorite (three times at odds-on) for Christophe Clement, scored first off the claim at Saratoga, paying $46. Vinny Goodtimes, haltered at the Spa from Todd Pletcher, has won twice at the fall meet, paying $17 and $22.80.

Quick’s latest bomb was Sensational Slam ($81), who had won first off a claim at Aqueduct on March 14, making him the closest fit to the date clause in last Saturday’s second race.

Surface specialization

Through Columbus Day, Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown were tied atop the standings with identical 18-for-69 records. However, their numbers broke down much differently in terms of surface. Pletcher was 14 for 45 on dirt, as opposed to 4 for 24 on turf. Brown was a mere 3 for 23 on the main track but 15 for 46 on grass.

Their closest pursuers, Linda Rice (15 wins) and David Jacobson (14) were studies in contrast as well. At 13 for 47, Rice has been the circuit’s most proficient turf trainer other than Brown, but on dirt, she was just 2 for 12. On the other hand, Jacobson was 12 for 55 on dirt and 2 for 43 on grass.

Erasing the chalk

Heading into the final days of the fall meet, favorites were 80 for 274 (29 percent), with the average dragged down by turf favorites who were only 35 for 143 (24 percent).