Belmont Park handicapping roundup and horses to watch for Oct. 5

Super Saturday review

By now you’ve heard from just about everyone else, and since we’re still four weeks out from the Breeders’ Cup, permit me to put in my two cents regarding Super Saturday observations.

◗ There’s nothing harder than trying to ascertain whether a top-level stakes horse can return to former heights after a period of subpar form, and I managed to go 0 for 3 with Little Mike, Ron the Greek, and The Lumber Guy. I’m not going to lose any sleep about Little Mike’s rebound at 7-1, because although he looked like the proverbial “finished product,” he has a history of confounding people, having won Grade 1 races last year at 17-1, 12-1, and 7-2. Similarly, the Jockey Club Gold Cup result was all Greek to me. Anyone who sniffed out that explosion by Ron the Greek to a 114 Beyer Speed Figure, his best since that 115 in the Sunshine Millions, deserved every bit of 21-1. The Lumber Guy looked to be sitting on a return to form after a move into a hot pace at Saratoga followed by a pair of bullet works, but, alas, he neglected to beat a horse in the Vosburgh.

◗ Private Zone ran pretty much the same race in the Vosburgh as he did in winning the Pirate’s Bounty at Del Mar a few weeks earlier. Each time, he was clear by a length at the pace call, collared in midstretch, battled back on the rail when challenged, and galloped out like a wild horse.

◗ Remember how it seemed like Cross Traffic was headed to the Classic and Graydar was going to the Dirt Mile. Todd Pletcher’s runners might flip-flop now. It’s highly doubtful whether Cross Traffic got enough out of his fiasco in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to take on the likes of Game On Dude at 10 furlongs. Meanwhile, Graydar’s comeback win in the Kelso hinted he can take on more distance. He’s a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles to begin with, and his Kelso splits of 23.41 seconds, 23.70, 23.36, and 23.61 suggest he can maintain a good cruising speed all day.

◗ Taking nothing away from Laughing, now 4 for 4 this year after taking everything that’s been given to her, this year’s Flower Bowl lineup, pound for pound, was the worst in memory. It’s unfathomable that no Europeans came across the pond for such easy pickings and a free ride to the Filly and Mare Turf.

◗ Bill Mott said he “could’ve done more” with Royal Delta, and she “wasn’t wound quite as tight” for the Beldame. It showed when Princess of Sylmar came calling and the reigning queen of U.S. racing had no answer. So now what? Mott has won the Distaff three times with Beldame runners-up, including Royal Delta in 2011. But Royal Delta’s three top Beyers last year were 110-108-106, and this year they are 105-105-102. Tough call coming up.

By the numbers

With 17 of 37 days in the books, Javier Castellano was running away with the fall meet title, doubling up his closest pursuer, Jose Ortiz, by a 32-16 count. Clustered for the show spot were Cornelio Velasquez (14), Junior Alvarado (14), Luis Saez (14), and Rajiv Maragh (13).

Among trainers, Chad Brown had a slim 10-9 lead on Todd Pletcher, thanks mainly to eight turf winners that included 2-year-old maiden winners Request, Shadow Banking, and Storming Inti.
Reflecting how tough some of the results have been to have, 10 of the top dozen riders and nine of the top dozen trainers averaged double-digit mutuels in September.

Oddly enough, Mott (0 for 14) entered October still looking for his first grass win of the session and so did David Jacobson (0 for 27).

Rails up, rails down

Laughing must be living right. She capitalized on speed-favoring conditions twice at Saratoga in the Diana and Ballston Spa and then got fresh inside ground when the temporary rails came down for the Flower Bowl. On the inner turf, the rails have been down only for opening weekend and last weekend, during which time 3 of 10 races were won wire to wire. With the rails set out at either 9 or 18 feet the rest of September, the only front-end winner from 31 races over the inner course was Kharafa in the Ashley T. Cole. That doesn’t include two steeplechase races, both won from off the pace as well.

For speed types, the Widener course hasn’t been much better, with or without the rails up. Only 6 of 42 races (14 percent) were won in front-running style.

As bad as speed has been on grass, that’s how good it’s been on the main track. No fewer than 37 of the first 82 dirt races were won on the front-end, a staggering success rate of 45 percent.

Horses to watch

ENGINE
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last race: Sept. 27, 2nd
Finish: 3rd by neck
Beyer: 81
This $250,000 Mineshaft colt broke awkwardly and trailed through the opening half-mile, altered course in the stretch, and finished gamely to narrowly miss in an educational debut.

TOURIST
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last race: Sept. 28, 2nd
Finish: 3rd by 3 3/4
Beyer: 77
Chasing the first two betting choices, each of whom had the benefit of a prior start, this homebred juvenile colt by Tiznow finished evenly in a useful first attempt. He is bred to stretch out.

RAGLIN RIVER
Trainer: Joe Orseno
Last race: Sept. 29, 5th
Finish: 3rd by 1 3/4
Beyer: 69
Claimed for a mere $12,500 in March and laid off until August, this New York-bred gelding encountered traffic from the five-sixteenths pole to midstretch and still managed to produce his third consecutive in-the-money finish in a maiden special weight turf sprint.