Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 6, 2013
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Race 2 |
Vulnerable FavoriteOther than the half-mile bullet gate work on Sept. 30 the work pattern for CO COLA (#5, 2-1) doesn’t sport a whole lot of heft. Kind of funky pedigree for low-end buy by this barn’s standards, and looks like there are a few other ways to go in this 2yo MSW. - Marcus Hersh
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Race 5 |
Live LongshotALCOLITE (#7, 8-1): Chased in a “merry-go-round” race that featured a slow pace and absolutely no position change Sept. 13, and now gets a more favorable setup thanks to the presence of several rivals with early speed. Something close to his lifetime top Beyer two starts back would be sufficient to contend at a square price. -Dave Litfin
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Race 7 |
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Race 9 |
Pilgrim StakesThe first of two Win and You’re In events for the Breeders’ Cup juvenile turf races to be contested at Belmont Sunday is the Pilgrim, for 2yo’s going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf. Trainer Chad Brown saddles the two morning line favorites, SHADOW BANKING (#4, 5-2) and BOBBY’S KITTEN (#5, 3-1). Shadow Banking is a full brother to the multiple graded stakes placed 3yo Stormy Len (who is scheduled to run in the Grade 1 Jamaica on Saturday afternoon), and he made a very impressive debut here last month. After getting away last vs. only four other runners, Shadow Banking was content to trail early before sweeping around horses four-wide through the turn, and he was ridden out through the stretch to a much-the-best win. It will be no surprise if he were able to win a graded stakes race in his second start, but it is the other Brown trainee who interests me more, and assuming Bobby’s Kitten is in fact sent off at the better price, he’s the horse I’m betting. Bobby’s Kitten ran twice at Saratoga, and flashed plenty of potential up there. He was a very unlucky loser of his debut after a tough trip, and while his maiden win on the Travers undercard returned a relatively modest Beyer of 74, I thought he ran much better than that; here are my notes for his effort, via Formulator: left w/speed but had to duel his way to lead on fast pace, went clear b/s then took on strong challenge thru2T, held that & clear again, strong effort The other major player in the race also has a connection to Chad Brown. DUE DILIGENCE (#9, 7-2) made a highly impressive debut sprinting on turf for Brown upstate, dueling his way to the lead and then airing through the stretch. He was privately purchased by the powerful Coolmore connections after that race, and will make his second career start for Todd Pletcher. The question with Due Diligence surrounds his distance capabilities. He is a full brother to the talented Console, who has impressed in career while sprinting, but failed miserably the only time he was stretched out in distance. If you believe that distance is no issue for Due Diligence, then he is a major player in here; but I have my concerns. The price horse that interests me most in the Pilgrim is BLUE PIGEON (#7, 12/1) who steps way up in class after defeating NY-breds in his debut at Saratoga. He got a very good trip in that race, saving ground away from a strong pace, but Blue Pigeon raced very handily throughout, and was a convincing winner. He’ll need to do better vs. these horses, but I think he’s eligible to do so, and can get a piece. Spot PlayBOBBY'S KITTEN (#5, 3-1) He seems to be working the best of this group of Breeders’ Cup hopefuls. His two most recent works were alongside of Shadow Banking over the Belmont turf course and was best, while going easy, in each of them. - Mike Vesce
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Race 10 |
Miss Grillo StakesThe Miss Grillo is a Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and much like the Pilgrim, features a pair of morning line favorites trained by Chad Brown. GRANNY MC’S KITTEN (#9, 3-1) is the horse to beat, following a very convincing win to break her maiden in the PG Johnson stakes at Saratoga. She did get a perfect trip en route to that win, but this full sister to Kitten’s Dumplings (a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, who has earned over $450k so far in her career), was clearly better than those horses, and the tactical speed she found in that race will suit her well going forward. To me she is clearly the horse to beat in here. Brown’s other entrant is more of a wild card in this race, and as such, would be tough to take too short of a price on. TESTA ROSSI (#8, 7-2) has won 3-of-5 career starts in France over shorter distances, and she did defeat males twice, but she has raced mostly at smaller tracks over there. It would hardly be surprising if she turns out to be another talented import who found her way to this trainer, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach. The horse I’m most interested in betting here is DANCING HOUSE (#1A, 5-1), who will make her turf debut in the Miss Grillo for Kiaran McLaughlin. I have been impressed with Dancing House’s professionalism to begin her career, and switching to grass figures to give her a chance to move up, as her dam Tout Charmant won multiple Grade 1’s on grass, and made over $1.6 million on that surface in her very good career. Assuming she is trading at around her morning line odds at post time, I’ll take a chance with her in the Miss Grillo. I also thought that Christophe Clement’s BIKINI BEAUTY (#5, 5-1) was a player after a stylish debut win (one of many on grass for Clement this year) at Saratoga. So far, the horses to have run back have failed to flatter that race, but Bikini Beauty flashed some real ability in there, and is well-bred on the dam side to be this kind of horse. Spot PlayTESTA ROSSI (#8, 7-2) French import raced mostly at provincial track in homeland earlier this year; must be listed price minimum. –Chuck Kuehhas
Spot PlayMORETHANAWARNING (#3, 10-1): Her speed figures fit well with this group and her most recent breeze over the Belmont turf course was easy and useful. She seems to be doing well and the price should be right for this daughter of More Than Ready. – Mike Vesce
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Race 11 |
Spot PlayWHY NOT WHISKEY (#3, 5-1) won a race in fast time at Saratoga two back before finishing third in a relatively paceless affair at the current Belmont meet.– Byron King
Spot PlayWELLINGTON WIZARD (#6, 6-1) middle moved in his first turf try against an ok group; think he fits well here. –Chuck Kuehhas Closer Looks >> |