Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 5, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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REACHING OUT (#7, 8-1) been on the sidelines since a DNF this spring here in lone turf try; returns to the main track and goes first time for solid conditioner.- Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 3

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Race 4

Race 5

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HOTHERSAL (#5, 4-1) was well bet for his return from the long layoff but he had a tough time there, breaking through the gate and then pushing the pace, which included a quick middle fraction; he meets several of the same rivals here but this rematch should feature a much different race flow, given the relative lack of speed. -Kenny Peck

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Race 6

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Race 7

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NON STOP (#10, 6-1): Off slowest and rallied to wind up second best in a slow-paced sprint first time out in seven weeks. He switches back to turf, and earned career best Beyer winning on this course in 2012. -Dave Litfin

Race 8

Jamaica Handicap

Hard to imagine that this years running of the Grade 1 Jamaica could have come up any better, with just about every top 3yo turfer scheduled to show up. With a field as deep at this there are almost too many ways to go, which means it may ultimately just come down to trips; and in that case, from a wagering perspective, let price be your guide.

On the positive side, as far as evaluating the respective chances of these horses, at least there have been a few races already this year where they have run against each other, and taking some of those races apart may help your decision making.

Let’s begin with the July 13th Virginia Derby, won by WAR DANCER (#2, 4/1), with JACK MILTON (#5, 6/1) finishing 3rd. Run over 1 ¼ miles, that race also featured a strong field and while War Dancer was a thoroughly deserving winner, it did seem when all was said and done that Jack Milton emerged from that race an unlucky loser; caught in traffic at a crucial point after an inside trip, Jack Milton was able to alter clear late and finished very well to just come up short.

Subsequent to that race, War Dancer took a swing at the Travers, and while that wasn’t likely to work out, and didn’t, it shouldn’t be held against him. Jack Milton, meanwhile, went to Arlington to try the Grade 1 Secretariat, where he met up with ADMIRAL KITTEN (#1, 7/2) and STORMY LEN (#7, 8/1). Admiral Kitten emerged the winner of that race, with Stormy Len and Jack Milton filling out the top three, both with legit excuses. No knocks on the winner there, as he has held good form for top connections all year, but it did feel like he took advantage just a bit with a clean run into a strong pace. Stormy Len, meanwhile, went early in there to duel the once-hot Rydilluc into defeat and paid the price late, while settling for a very, very good second place finish. Jack Milton had excuses of his own in there, and was a solid 3rd (trip notes for that effort via Formulator):

didn’t break & got squeezed back early, raced wide thru 1T & up b/s then chased pace from far turn, stayed gamely

That kind of trip and effort has become something of a theme for Jack Milton throughout the summer, but going further back toward the beginning of the year he got an absolutely perfect trip to win the Transylvania Stakes over a fast closing UP WITH THE BIRDS (#11, 8/1). To me Jack Milton is a major player in the Jamaica, as he could have won any of his last three races with a different trip.

Staying with the Secretariat horses for a minute, I have a feeling that Stormy Len may be the best of this group, at least right now, and quite possibly going forward. Not only was he likely best in the Secretariat, but he just missed in the American Derby prior to that (again finishing behind Admiral Kitten) while racing wide behind a slow pace, and then took on a tough task shipping to Canada to try older horses over 1 ½ miles. He’s a big player in here, with the major question being – will the busy summer campaign catch up to him at some point?

Up With the Birds went back to Canada after his strong Transylvania effort behind Jack Milton, and while he came up short of attaining his major goal in the Queen’s Plate, he was badly compromised by the pace of that race, and he dominated the $500k Breeders Stakes back on grass. He is another horse with a major shot at the Jamaica, and represents value if going off at anything like his ML of 8/1 - although he didn’t draw well on the outside, and will have to work out a trip.

Back toward the inside, BALANCE THE BOOKS (#4, 5/1) and MILLS (#3, 20/1) haven’t contested the major summer races for this division, but both are very talented and shouldn’t be discounted. Balance the Books obviously has the credentials and the connections to be seriously checked out in here, as heading into this year he felt like the clear leader of this division based on his 2yo campaign. He was rather unwisely, as it turned out, given a chance to be a Derby horse which compromised the first part of the year for him; but once sent back to turf, Balance the Books quickly showed that he can still run, and, in fact, has improved. He did get the best of the trips when defeating Mills in the Stroll Stakes at Saratoga last time, but he still won it quite convincingly and is difficult to simply dismiss – though there is a chance he gets over bet in here, which would make the decision a bit easier.

Mills doesn’t have the credentials of some of the others in here, but he has flashed plenty of talent through five starts, and is going to be a huge price, which makes him interesting.

In a race like this, you have to look for value, and if the morning line is on point (it usually is in NY, as Eric Donovan is among the best in that business, in my opinion) then Stormy Len and Up With the Brids are both very inviting prices at 8/1. I want to like Jack Milton as my key, and 6/1 feels like a fair price on him, but I wouldn’t take less. And I will use a little of Mills, as well, hoping he stacks up with this tough group.

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Race 9

Frizette Stakes

Through two starts so far, SWEET REASON (#1, 8/5) has appeared to be something special. In each of those races upstate, Sweet Reason found herself back off the pace in the early going, and both times she came with a huge run to leave her competition reeling in the stretch. Maybe a little skepticism was in order after her debut, big run or not, as it came in a race scheduled for turf but washed off onto a sloppy, sealed main track; but the way she backed that race up in the Grade 1 Spinaway, with an impressive open lengths win which earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, should have erased any doubts as to her quality. The only questions remaining for Sweet Reason now are 1) is she simply a wet track freak who won’t reproduce those races over fast dirt?; and 2) how far does she want to go? The Frizette should go a long way toward answering those questions. For those wanting an alternative to the favorite, I would recommend looking at Todd Pletcher’s STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#4, 3/1), who was well behind Sweet Reason in the Spinaway, but exits that race as a horse eligible to make things much closer. In that race, Stopchargingmaria wound up down inside behind horses as Sweet Reason was sweeping by to the lead, and she finished very gamely once clear in the stretch, though having no chance to catch. I think things may be closer than many people think between these two horses, and will give Stopcharingmaria a chance to turn the tables on the likely heavy favorite.

Of the others, ARTEMIS AGROTERA (#2, 6/1) was a highly impressive debut winner at 2/5 vs. NY Breds upstate, and this can be considered very confident placing by her connections, but I would prefer that she had another race after that debut run, and it’s not like there isn’t any other speed in here.

TEA TIME (#3, 6/1) earned a competitive figure when blitzing maidens on the front end here a couple of weeks ago, but that was over a track carrying inside speed, and she’ll be stretching out here in a tough spot.

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Race 10

Champagne Stakes

There is a lot of good racing around the country this weekend, with no less than 15 Win-and-You’re-In events for the Breeders’ Cup scheduled; an expected appearance by reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland; and a stellar edition of the Arc de Triomphe running on Sunday. Even with all that, there may not be a more fascinating race on the schedule than the 142nd Champagne Stakes, which goes as race 10 at Belmont on Saturday. The conversation should, and here it will, begin with D. Wayne’s Hopeful winner STRONG MANDATE (#7, 5/2), who has come out of nowhere to win his last two starts by a combined 14+ lengths, and stamp himself as the leader of the juvenile division as we head into the fall. After going off at 16/1 and then 7/1 odds in those smashing wins upstate, Strong Mandate rates to get much more respect in the Champagne, and to me he is clearly the horse to beat. Not only was he very strong in winning those races, but he has the kind of tractable speed which will allow him to get any kind of trip in this race, and pedigree-wise he is supposed the appreciate more distance (by multiple BC Classic winner Tiznow, his dam, Clear Mandate, was a multiple Grade 1 winner routing on dirt).

He’s a really good horse, but all of the buzz around the Champagne this year is coming off of a pair of highly impressive debut winners upstate. First, HAVANA (#3, 7/2) was unveiled by Todd Pletcher on August 23rd. After zipping a furlong in an amazing 9.60 seconds at the Barretts sale in March, Havana was purchased for $575k, and he did not disappoint anyone who backed him down to 2/5 odds in his debut. As expected, he flashed high speed, was able to turn away a challenge from an obviously cranked-up Tom Amoss firster named Kendall’s Boy, and went on to score by just under three lengths in a final time that was just 0.13 seconds off the track record. Havana earned the top Beyer Speed Figure for any two-year-old this year for that race, a 102. There is very little to doubt about Havana’s natural ability; the question is, how far will he ultimately want to go, and will he be able to stretch out from 5 ½ - to -8 furlongs vs. a horse like Strong Mandate in a Grade 1 race. To me it’s a very tall order, and I won’t bet on it, but I won’t be surprised if he does it. The other horse who generated much excitement at Saratoga is Shug’s HONOR CODE (#5, 3/1). There’s no need to recap his debut, which apparently everyone saw, but to say that he made up an acre of ground in there would only be a slight exaggeration. It came over a sloppy, sealed track, but you don’t get the feeling that the surface helped him that much (you never know, though), and it’s unlikely that he can spot these horses any kind of head start and still be expected to win, but he was so green early on in there that with the experience he may not be completely outrun early this time. He’ll have to keep himself in range though; and because of his reputation out of that debut, I’ll expect him to be an underlay in this race, and I’ll be against him.

I’ll instead use another horse with Strong Mandate, and that is GRAND ARRIVAL (#8, 8/1). Grand Arrival broke his maiden a couple of races prior to Honor Code’s coming out party, and he did it in a time that was a full second slower, but he showed something in that race, and because he almost has to get lost in the wagering behind the big three horses in the Champagne, he is an interesting horse to use. He did not get a good trip in his debut, and all things considered ran quite well that day in what was one of the faster 2yo maiden races run at the meet; and he took a big step forward in start #2. He’ll obviously have to go forward once again vs. this crew, but I can’t bet either Havana or Honor Code in this race, and considering the likely price discrepancy, I’ll give Grand Arrival a chance.

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Race 11

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