Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 4, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

This is a race I want to be involved in, especially if the ML holds up. I’ve never been a big fan of likely favorite VICTORY ISLAND (#1, 2/1), who has been in good form since returning from a long layoff this year, and certainly can win this race as she drops to the lowest level of her career. Figure-wise, she’s just another player in this race, and she’s been at her best from off the pace (which we’ll get to) which makes her a favorite worth taking a shot against.

CAUTION SIGN (#3, 5-2) is the second choice on the line, and she is in good form as well, but to this point in her career has been much more effective on grass which makes her tough to take at a short price on this surface. TALMADGE HILL (#8, 7-2) feels like a terrible price at anything like the 7/2 she’s listed at, with Javier Castellano up or not, as her turf form is only okay and her dirt form is horrendous.

I want to take my chances against those horses with MCCARREN PARK (#4, 5-1). I know she was just defeated for an $8.5k tag at Finger Lakes, but at least she still had her speed up there and got the best of a pace duel before tiring. She has all of the best dirt races in the field if you go back in her pp’s, and while it may appear that she’s tailed offs since claimed by these connections, she ran in two very tough allowance/optional claiming races back in June/July, and then tried turf, which is an easy race to throw out. I think she is the speed of this race, and I’ll take her to try to wire this field at anything like the ML price.

Race 4

Spot Play

CATHOLIC COWBOY (#4, 6-1) owns the top last-race Beyer (a 74), posted in running fourth vs. better; second at Belmont in one prior start. – Byron King

Spot Play

SNIFTER (#3, 5-2): We last saw this guy finishing a distant fifth in the debut against Ketucky Derby fourth place finisher, Normandy Invasion. He worked well from the gate alongside of highly regarded, Ackerman Road on September 21st and followed it up nicely when breezing with older stakes winner, Hierro on September 28th. - Mike Vesce

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Race 5

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Race 6

Live Longshot

PHOTON (#5, 8-1) cuts back to one turn and draws well for this seven furlong affair; should be running late trying to run down field filled with horses stretching out for barn that’s been going good.- Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

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Race 8

Live Longshot

8TH MASASI (#3, 8-1): Among a handful of fillies returning from a layoff and/or switching to turf in this maiden special-weight sprint. Certainly bred for the job, as half-sibling Mimi’s Bling won three turf sprints including a $100K stake; solid work tab. -Dave Litfin

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Race 9

Spot Play

MY MARIGOLD (#4, 20-1) is a consistent rallier who meets a fairly weak field; Penn ship-ins are routinely overlooked here but she's worth including in all slots across the board. -Kenny Peck

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